EUR/USD Forecast: Dull trading continues, fears put some bearish pressure

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1876

  • European indexes closed in the red, US ones were mixed, as concerns outweighed hopes.
  • Market players ignored soft macroeconomic data coming from both shores of the Atlantic.
  • EUR/USD keeps trading above the 1.1800 level but edged lower for a second consecutive day.

The EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1850 as the American session comes to an end, recovering from a daily low of 1.1815 and up for the day. The American dollar benefited from a worsening market’s mood that kept European equities in negative territory throughout the day and also hit Wall Street. Investors’ concerns gyrated around coronavirus developments as the pandemic keeps spreading in the US and Europe, with the first toughening measures to curb the spread.

Macroeconomic data passed unnoticed, although the EU published the September Current Account, which posted a seasonally adjusted surplus of €25.2 billion, below the market’s expectations. Meanwhile, the US released  Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 13. The report showed that 742K people filed for unemployment, worse than anticipated. The country also published the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, which came in at 26.3, better than the 22 expected. October Existing Home Sales increased by 4.3%, beating expectations.

This Friday, Germany will publish the October Producer Price Index, while the EU will unveil the preliminary estimate of November Consumer Confidence, seen falling from -15.5 to -17.7. The US won’t release relevant macroeconomic reports.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair is neutral in the near-term, as the 4-hour chart shows that it has spent the day developing around a directionless 20 SMA now above it. The same chart shows that the 100 SMA converges with the 200 SMA, both lacking directional strength. The Momentum indicator holds within negative levels without favoring a particular bias, as the RSI advances around 55. The risk will skew to the downside only on a break below 1.1800.

Support levels: 1.1800 1.1760 1.1720

Resistance levels: 1.1885 1.1920 1.1965

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD


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