• EUR/USD rallied hard on Monday amid broad-based USD weakness.
  • Dismal US data, trade uncertainty aggravated the USD selling bias.
  • The positive momentum stalled just ahead of the 1.1100 handle.

The EUR/USD pair caught some aggressive bids on the first day of a new trading week and finally broke through its recent trading range. A fresh wave of US dollar selling – further weighed down by disappointing manufacturing data – turned out to be one of the key factors that provided a strong lift to the major. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.1 in November, down from 48.3 previous and marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction.

Focus remains on trade developments

The USD downfall accelerated further after the US President Donald Trump’s decision to restore steel and aluminium tariffs on Brazil and Argentina. The already weaker sentiment surrounding the buck deteriorated further after the US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross told Fox News that Trump is willing to increase tariffs if there is no deal. The latest developments added to uncertainty over a potential US-China trade deal and kept exerting pressure on the greenback.

A broad-based USD weakness helped the pair to build on the previous session's modest bounce from near two-month lows and log the biggest single-day rise since September 17. The pair climbed back above the 100-day SMA, albeit a modest USD rebound during the Asian session on Tuesday kept a lid on any strong follow-through. The pair now seems to have entered a bullish consolidation phase and was seen oscillating in a narrow trading band below the 1.1100 handle.

In absence of any major market-moving economic releases, either from the Euro-zone or the US, the incoming trade-related headlines might continue to influence the USD price dynamics and act as an exclusive driver of the pair's intraday movement on Tuesday.

Short-term technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the overnight upsurge might have shirted the near-term bias in favour of bullish traders. However, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying beyond the 1.1100 round-figure mark before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move back towards the double-top resistance, near the 1.1170-80 region, en-route the 1.1200 handle.

On the flip side, immediate support is now pegged near mid-1.1000s and is closely followed by the 1.1025 horizontal level. Failure to defend the mentioned support might negate prospects for any further positive move and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back towards testing sub-1.10 levels. The pair then could extend the downward momentum further towards the 1.0955-50 intermediate support ahead of the 1.0900 handle.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats after strong NFP, weak German data

EUR/USD is trading below   1.11 after US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations with 266K and mixed wage growth. Earlier, weak German data weighed on the euro. Updates on trade are awaited.


GBP/USD shrugs off strong NFP, focuses on UK elections

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3150 but off the post-NFP lows. The US gained more jobs than expected. The Conservatives remain in the lead ahead of the debate between PM Johnson and Labour leader Corbyn.


US recession? Not so fast, a calm look at the economy and currencies ahead of the NFP

Recent US economic indicators have been downbeat, but they include silver linings and are backed by robust consumption. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam...

Read more

Gold drops to fresh multi-day lows on upbeat NFP report

Gold faded an intraday bullish spike to the $1480 area and tumbled to fresh multi-day lows, around the $1465 region in reaction to upbeat US monthly jobs report.

Gold News

USD/JPY: bearish ahead of US employment figures

Japanese data missed the market’s expectations, triggering fresh concerns about the economy. Focus on US employment figures, market players anticipate dismal numbers. USD/JPY is technically bearish could break below the 108.00 level.


Forex Majors