EUR/USD analysis: US CPI to make it or break it

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1756

The EUR/USD pair closed flat for a second consecutive day around 1.1750, as US PPI data provided a reality check on where US inflation and therefore the Fed stand these days. US July headline PPI came in below expected, falling 0.1% monthly basis, and up by 1.9% when compared to a year earlier. The core readings were also a miss, clearly suggesting that the Fed would be in no rush for additional tightening. Additionally, Fed's Dudley spoke, saying that he expects inflation to surge above 2% in the medium term, and growth to remain moderate, adding to the case for a Fed's gradual policy-tightening plan. Anyway, the greenback closed the day mixed, one again sharply lower against safe-haven assets, an only higher against those currencies who shed ground on self-weakness.

Friday's macroeconomic calendar anticipates a busy end to the week, as several members of the EU will release their July inflation figures, including Germany, while the US will also unveil it July CPI figures. These lasts are expected pretty much unchanged, but the PPI figures were also forecasted to be stronger that the final result according to other economic indicators.

From a technical point of view, the bearish pressure seems to have eased modestly, as the pair posted a higher low daily basis, at 1.1703. Still and for the short term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price remains unable to surpass a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators pared their recoveries within negative territory and turned flat. The 1.1770 resistance is still key for the pair, with an advance beyond it probably resulting in an extension beyond 1.1800.

Support levels: 1.1730 1.1690 1.1650

Resistance levels: 1.1770 1.1820 1.1860

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