EUR/USD Analysis: Corrective bounce falters near mid-1.1300s, focus remains on US CPI

  • Renewed USD buying prompted fresh selling around EUR/USD on Thursday.
  • Hawkish Fed expectations, rising US bond yields acted as a tailwind for the USD.
  • The cautious market mood further benefitted the greenback’s safe-haven status.

The EUR/USD pair witnessed some selling on Thursday and eroded a part of the previous day's strong gains twhich took it to a one-week high, around mid-1.1300s. The pair remained depressed throughout the early European session and was pressured by the emergence of fresh US dollar buying. A further rise in the US Treasury bond yields, along with the cautious market mood drove some haven flows back towards the greenback. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond shot back above the 1.50% threshold amid firming expectations for a faster policy tightening by the Fed.

Investors seem convinced that the Fed will hike interest rates sooner rather than later amid worries about the persistent rise in inflationary pressures. The money markets have been pricing in the possibility for an eventual liftoff in May 2022. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the latest US consumer inflation figures, due for release on Friday. The CPI report will influence the Fed's decision to taper its stimulus at a faster pace and set the stage for an imminent interest rate hike. This, in turn, will drive the greenback ahead of the FOMC policy meeting next week.

Meanwhile, mixed headlines on the Omicron variant of the coronavirus kept a lid on recent optimism in the markets. In the latest development, BioNTech and Pfizer said on Wednesday that a three-shot course of their COVID-19 vaccine was able to neutralise the Omicron variant in a laboratory test. Conversely, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday imposed fresh COVID-19 restrictions in England to slow the spread of the new variant. This, along with escalating geopolitical tensions, weighed on investors' sentiment and benefitted the greenback's relative safe-haven status.

The US recently announced that it will not send an official delegation to the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing to protest against China's alleged violations of human rights. Similarly, relations between the US and Russia took a turn for the worse after US President Joe Biden threatened to impose strong economic and other measures on Russia if it invades Ukraine. The fundamental backdrops favour the USD bulls and a further downfall for the major. In the absence of any major market-moving economic releases, the USD price dynamics will be looked upon for some short-term trading impetus.

Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the pair’s inability to capitalize on the overnight positive move and the emergence of fresh selling on Thursday warrants some caution for bullish traders. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling back below the 1.1300 mark before positioning for the resumption of the recent bearish trend. The pair might then accelerate the fall towards intermediate support near the 1.1260-55 region before dropping to test weekly swing low, around the 1.1230-25 region.

This is followed by the YTD low, or levels just below the 1.1200 mark set on November 25, which if broken decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the pair to the 1.1145 support area en-route the 1.1100 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, momentum beyond mid-1.1300s is likely to confront some resistance near the 1.1380-85 area, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 1.1692-1.1186 downfall. A sustained breakthrough, leading to a subsequent strength above the 1.1400 mark could push the pair further towards the 50% Fibo. level, around the 1.1440 region.


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rebounds to 1.1350 on modest dollar weakness

EUR/USD regained its traction after declining toward 1.1320 during the European session and rose to 1.1350 area. The dollar's is facing modest selling pressure amid falling US Treasury bond yields and allowing the pair to continue to edge higher ahead of the weekend.


GBP/USD struggles to pull away from 10-day low set near 1.3550

GBP/USD fell toward 1.3550 on Friday and touched its weakest level in 10 days. Although the US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory in the early American session, the risk-averse market environment doesn't allow the pair to stage a convincing recovery.


Gold reclaims $1,840 amid falling US T-bond yields

Gold reversed its direction after testing $1,830 earlier in the day and turned positive on the day above $1,840. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is losing more than 3% at 1.75%, fueling XAU/USD's rebound.

Gold News

BTC may capitulate to $30,000

Bitcoin price has dropped considerably over the last three weeks. The recent downswing has made things worse for BTC and hints that a steep correction could be on its way.

Read more

Will the Netflix stock price rebound?

Netflix stock edged down after better than expected Q4 results. Will the Netflix stock price rebound? Expectations of rising subscription and higher prices are bullish for Netflix stock price.

Read more