EURUSD 19th June, 2015

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our first target at 1.1305, and exceeded it by 13 pips.

This was followed by a moderate rise that overlapped with what we’ve labeled as minuette wave (i), which indicates that this rise cannot be labeled as minuette wave (iv). All of this suggests that minuette wave (iii) is actually forming an extension toward the downside, or that the entire structure is actually a diagonal rather than an impulse.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1402
– Confirmation Point: 1.1292
– Downwards Target: 1.1256 – 1.1188
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1436 – 1.1292
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1381 – 1.1405
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving towards the downside in primary wave C, which is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (3) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly 161.8% the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) formed a flat labeled minor waves A, B and C, retracing just over 38.2% of intermediate wave (3).

Within it, minor wave B formed a flat labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing the required 90% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, with minute wave iii forming an extension labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), overall reaching exactly 161.8% the length of minor wave A.

Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled as minute waves a, b and c, and is most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in minor wave 3. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1151, with higher confirmation below 1.0819.

At 1.0788 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0388 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1467 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minor wave 3 is unfolding towards the downside as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i is most likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (ii) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing slightly more than 61.8% of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) is forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave i formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, exhibiting typical Fibonacci relationships between the subwaves.

Subminuette wave ii formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing a bit over 61.8% of subminuette wave i, and it’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects subminuette wave iii to start moving towards the downside. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1292.

At 1.1256 subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.1188 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1402 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

Alternatively, this count sees that minute wave i is forming a leading diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (i) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects minuette wave (ii) to continue moving towards the upside for another day or two.

At 1.1381 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (i), then at 1.1405 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1436 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i). It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.1292 as the B-wave within this zigzag may not move beyond the start of its A-wave.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

The alternate daily count tracks the possibility that the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), with minuette wave (iii) forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minute wave ii is forming a flat correction labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minuette wave (a) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (b) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b, and c.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the downside in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.0882 minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i, then at 1.0722 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0520 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.