Barclays Capital's month-end rebalancing model generates a moderate amounts of EUR buying against the dollar and modest USD buying against the GBP, CAD and AUD.
Barclays month-end fixing model provides signals for trading FX on the last day of the month. The model provides signals from '+++' through neutral to '---' to indicate the strength of this month's signal relative to its own history.
The signals (see below) are traded between 12pm and 4pm London time on the month-end date. The model works under the assumption of passive rebalancing of hedges at month-end.
"Equity and bond markets across developed economies began the month in a downbeat mood, as investors priced in the start and pace of the Fed’s tightening cycle, but pared losses to end little changed. In relative terms, however, the US market modestly underperformed the GBP, CAD and AUD markets
European assets posted the largest decline in market value relative to the rest of the world, in USD terms, as the prospects of further ECB monetary easing weighed heavily on the EUR," Barclays notes.
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