The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, Oil, and SP500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: The bounce looks corrective. As the market now has filled the weekend gap but still remains below the broken trend line downside risks should again be on the rise. We see a move below 1.1002 as a short term downside trigger for a test of the 1.0955 near term key support. The topside is seen limited to the trend line or at worst up into the 55d ma band.
EUR/GBP: Another leg higher? First of all the false break down from the bear triangle was a warning signal of exhausted sellers, secondly the bullish key day reversal remains intact and thirdly the inability to get a foothold below the mid body point of the bullish key day benchmark candle indicates bids in the 0.7070-0.7050 area. All in all the setup is a carrying a bullish bias and a possible second leg higher, up into the 55d ma band.
BRENT CRUDE: Down at key support. After bearishly having broken below the January support line the sellers were yesterday further underpinned by news of Iranian supply ready to hit the market should the US/Iran talks end in success. There should at least be a small pause around current levels allowing the sellers to catch their breath. However breaking 56.47 will put levels below 53.19 into play. It is worth to note that the 56.47 key support is for the Sept contract….for the generic 1st contract the key support is 52.50.
S&P: Gap filled and now? The market now, after the weekend gap has been filled, stands at the crossroads turning either into Bear rd. or Bull rd. A rejection from current levels will see things taking a turn for the worse extending the decline down towards next the 2023 whereas a return above the line and in particular if also filling the June 26 – 29 gap (2096) will argue for a much brighter near term future. At the moment both ways are viable options.
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