Focus of the day:
"US Dollar: Bullish. While the recent pullback in US economic momentum casts a less obviously bullish outlook for the USD, we think the prospect for additional policy easing in the US' key trading partners stands in sharp contrast with the Fed's tightening bias. As such, we think the USD will remain supported going forward. Although the USD has strengthened already, we do not assess it to be materially overvalued historically. The less clear cut outlook for Fed policy could in our view result in less demand for longer dated optionality, resulting in a less bullish profile for implied volatility.
"Euro: Bearish. After a period of consolidation, we think EURUSD will revert to its downtrend as diverging monetary policy comes to focus between negative EUR yields and a hiking Fed. Moreover, we think outflows from the Eurozone will support the trend further. QE is likely to disrupt the domestic investor bias, diverting capital investment towards foreign currency denominated securities.
Japanese Yen: The recent consolidation in implied volatility, improvement in Japan’s BoP and Fed hiking expectations lead us to trim our USDJPY 3m forecast from 125 to 122. Nonetheless, we retain our 12m 127 forecast as the structural home bias of Japanese investors continues to unwind."
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
eFXnews is a financial news and information service. Articles and other information distributed in this service and published on this site are provided in general terms and do not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that some of these articles include suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, they do so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions to buy or sell a specific security or currency.
The service and the content of this site are provided and distributed on the basis of “AS IS” without warranties of any kind either, express or implied, including without limitations, warranties of title or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors do not also warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in any of the articles and other information distributed in this service and included on this site, and eFXnews hereby disclaims any such express or implied warranties; and, you hereby acknowledge that use of the service and the content of this site is at you sole risk.
In no event shall eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors will be liable to you or any third party or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you in your reliance on any strategy and/or advice included in any article and other information distributed in this service and published in this site.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY briefly recaptures 160.00, then pulls back sharply
Having briefly recaptured 160.00, USD/JPY pulls back sharply toward 159.00 on potential Japanese FX intervention risks. The Yen tumbles amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action.
AUD/USD extends gains above 0.6550 on risk flows, hawkish RBA expectations
AUD/USD extends gains above 0.6550 in the Asian session on Monday. The Aussie pair is underpinned by increased bets of an RBA rate hike at its May policy meeting after the previous week's hot Australian CPI data. Risk flows also power the pair's upside.
Gold stays weak below $2,350 amid risk-on mood, firmer USD
Gold price trades on a softer note below $2,350 early Monday. The recent US economic data showed that US inflationary pressures stayed firm, supporting the US Dollar at the expense of Gold price. The upbeat mood also adds to the weight on the bright metal.
Ethereum fees drops to lowest level since October, ETH sustains above $3,200
Ethereum’s high transaction fees has been a sticky issue for the blockchain in the past. This led to Layer 2 chains and scaling solutions developing alternatives for users looking to transact at a lower cost.
Week ahead: Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.