The surging USD has clearly complicated this week’s FOMC policy decision.
Although we see a good chance of the central bank turning more hawkish to the detriment of pairs such as EUR/USD a more dovish surprise cannot be excluded given still muted price developments.
However, ahead today it will be about ECB President Draghi speaking at the “Sueddeutsche Finance Day 2015”. We do not expect him to provide anything new as related to the central bank’s monetary policy stance. If anything he should indicate again that QE will continue regardless of stabilizing growth and price developments.
Although we do not expect the EUR facing considerable upside risk, patience may be needed when considering to sell the pair anew. This is mainly due to heightened risk of this week’s Fed policy announcement to trigger a sell the fact reaction.
Thus having reached the 1.06 target on our EUR/USD short position last week, we wait for better levels to re-initiate shorts.
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