The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Strong rejection from the 55d ma. The test into the 55d ma band ended with an impulsive rejection and a sharply lower price. So far the move has been cushioned by the 78.6% Fibo support (the first reaction after a possible turnaround has a tendency of correcting deeply (78.6%) into the preceding ascent) so there’s still a possibility that the decline is corrective despite its aggressive nature.
USD/JPY: A more bullish wave count. The overlapping and clearance of the 117.24/45 resistance has put the market on a more positive footing opening the door to a potentially completed downside correction (wave 4). However given that the wave 2 correction was an ordinary bull flag it is however (given the rule of alternation) that wave 4 will be that as well so the best fitted outcome would actually be a triangle i.e. a rise to 120.50 then a setback, a new bounce and so on. Ultimately the triangle should give way to a new trend high.
GBP/USD: Rechecking the lows. After yesterday’s turnaround and following decline the pair is back testing the October top line (that we broke above by mid Dec). Either the prices will bounce off the former ceiling line (creating a “kiss and goodbye” bull structure) or there will be a decline down to another marginally new low, 1.5510-ish, before a new reaction attempt will emerge.
AUD/NZD: The minimum target achieved. With yesterdays however rejected drop below the January bottom, 1.0494, our minimum target for the move was achieved. We are however keeping the door open for a continued descent towards our long term target, the 1988 support line at 1.0385, hence still suggesting selling into the minor reactions occurring.
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