EUR and European currencies have historically performed well in December, although without any stunning hit ratios. On the other hand, JPY is usually weak towards year-end, notes Credit Suisse.
Such patterns, according to CS, point to very high stakes for EUR/USD and USD/JPY into year-end.
"In December liquidity seasonally tightens, positioning tends to be squared and the euro area current account surplus is also seasonally strong. But Draghi’s well-timed statements now signal imminent ECB easing (our economists expect to see a framework for sovereign QE outlined at the 4 December ECB meeting)," CS clarifies.
"The stakes are therefore even higher than normal heading into the ECB meeting. This makes the euro area flash inflation estimate on 28 November a key data release for the market, in our view," CS argues.
How to position?
"Given that we expect the ECB to announce new QE, we stick to our longstanding short EUR view going into December. However, if Draghi disappoints, EUR shorts could become a 'painful' position. And while we ultimately would use EURUSD upside to establish new shorts, we would be cautious in the interim in such a scenario," CS advises.
"Meanwhile, short JPY positions, at least on this measure, could have an easier ride through the end of the year," CS projects.
'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'
eFXnews is a financial news and information service. Articles and other information distributed in this service and published on this site are provided in general terms and do not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that some of these articles include suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, they do so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions to buy or sell a specific security or currency.
The service and the content of this site are provided and distributed on the basis of “AS IS” without warranties of any kind either, express or implied, including without limitations, warranties of title or implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors do not also warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in any of the articles and other information distributed in this service and included on this site, and eFXnews hereby disclaims any such express or implied warranties; and, you hereby acknowledge that use of the service and the content of this site is at you sole risk.
In no event shall eFXnews and its employees, officers, directors, agents, and licensors will be liable to you or any third party or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you in your reliance on any strategy and/or advice included in any article and other information distributed in this service and published in this site.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD eases toward 0.6500 after mixed Australian trade data
AUD/USD is seeing some fresh selling interest in the Asian session on Thursday, following the release of mixed Australian trade data. The pair has stalled its recovery mode, as the US Dollar attempts a bounce after the Fed-led sell-off.
USD/JPY rebounds above 156.00 after probable Japan's intervention-led crash
USD/JPY is staging a solid comeback above 156.00, having lost nearly 450 pips in some minutes after the Japanese Yen rallied hard on another suspected Japan FX market intervention in the late American session on Wednesday.
Gold price stalls rebound below $2,330 as US Dollar recovers
Gold price is holding the rebound below $2,330 in Asian trading on Thursday, as the US Dollar recovers in sync with the USD/JPY pair and the US Treasury bond yields, in the aftermath of the Fed decision and the likely Japanese FX intervention.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Altcoins to pump once BTC bottoms out, slow grind up for now
Bitcoin reclaiming above $59,200 would hint that BTC has already bottomed out, setting the tone for a run north. Ethereum holding above $2,900 keeps a bullish reversal pattern viable despite falling momentum. Ripple coils up for a move north as XRP bulls defend $0.5000.
The FOMC whipsaw and more Yen intervention in focus
Market participants clung to every word uttered by Chair Powell as risk assets whipped around in a frenetic fashion during the afternoon US trading session.