The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Fell down to the equality point. The correction attempt faded faster than expected as already the 1.3289/98 resistance became a too big obstacle to overcome. Today’s gap (1.3240-1.3220) lower initiated further selling pushing prices as low as 1.3185 before rebounding. There are two things to take into account this morning, firstly the equality point, 1.3209, has now been met (the eq. point is the watershed between the decline being a corrective or trending move lower) and secondly a gap like today’s normally get filled within shortly so look for at least a 1.3240 bounce.
GBP/USD: So far spiking below the band. Last week ended with the seventh straight loss. Today the market has conducted the first, but so far failed, attempt below the 233d ma band. Given the hourly bull divergences in momentum indicators we wouldn’t be surprised to see a corrective bounce from here (before the real break will take place confirming a longer term bearish stance). Breaking above 1.6598 and the correction is getting traction.
USD/JPY: Halted in the resistance zone. Both Thu and Fri ended with spinning tops (two consecutive spinning tops showing a balanced market) so today’s gap higher (into the resistance zone) definitely carries a clear risk of failing. An absolute minimum setback will be to fill the weekend gap to 103.93 but more likely the 103.50 area to be scrutinized within a shortly.
AUD/NZD: Stretched but bid nevertheless. An alternative peak for this short-term paced upmove must be sought. Short-term conditions are undoubtly stretched but at the moment few seems to care. To get better arguments for a turn lower, sellers must force the cross back below the dynamic support at the fast ascending 21day "Kijun-Sen", now at 1.1040, but in the meantime refs at 1.1165-1.1200 could be tested and a failure up there could trigger well-needed profit-taking enough to curb the move.
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