The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: In the middle of the support zone. The passage of 1.3295 (Nov 2013 low) paved the way for lower prices and the pair soon arrived at 1.3250, the 38.2% Fibo support of the entire 2012/14 advance and the theoretical target for the triangle. As triangles normally are occurring very late in trending moves the risk of a reversal following a triangle breakout is high so we think it is time to start looking for correctional signs from 1.3250 and downwards.
USD/JPY: 104.13 resistance to be scrutinized. The latest development does not fit well with our longer term wave pattern (a sub 100 correction) and if breaking 104.13 it must be adjusted. An alternate path would be that we are creating yet another large triangle (hence a major top still lurking) and as such the market should turn down from 104.45, slide back to 103-ish and thereafter printing a new trend high above 105.45.
GBP/USD: An utterly bearish behavior. The post BOE minutes bounce was soon reversed leaving us with a long upper spike. The behavior is very bearish and supporting our view of a soon to come break of the 233d ma band, an event that also will confirm that more (and probably considerable) losses are underway. As pointed at yesterday such a break will next target 1.6380 and 1.60-ish (2009 top line).
S&P500: FOMC hurt, but not that much…The initial reaction to the FOMC minutes was negative, but by the close the hurt was healed – and more. Short-term multi-stochastics are back into an overstretched, but the deviation from a 21day exponential moving average is not extreme, so given price action of late at least a probe above the Jul high of 1,986 looks likely. In such a scenario a short-term 161.8% Fibo projection ref works as an attraction/resistance within reach.
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