France, the INSEE is somewhat more optimistic


  • French growth is expected to accelerate slightly 
  • Consumption, will lead, business investment will be less depressed
The Insee’s economic outlook carries a note of cautious optimism. In the December 2014 issue of “Conjoncture in France”, the Insee calls for French growth to accelerate slightly in the first half of 2015. It is expected to reach an annualised growth rate of 1% under the combined impact of lower oil prices and a weaker euro. Private consumption will be the main channel as the decline in the energy bill paid by households (for petrol, heating fuel, etc.) boosts purchasing power. Corporate investment is also supposed to pick up. Although currency depreciation raises the cost of intermediate goods, the impact is more than offset by the drop-off in commodity prices. Moreover, for many export companies, the euro’s decline eases the pressure on sales prices and thus on margins. Historically very low in France, the latest will get a lift in early 2015 from the ramping up of the CICE tax credit and reductions in employer’s contribution. Investment should follow… provided that demand prospects improve.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY crashes nearly 450 pips to 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

USD/JPY crashes nearly 450 pips to 155.50 on likely Japanese intervention

Having briefly recaptured 160.00, USD/JPY came under intense selling to test 155.00 on what seems like a Japanese FX intervention underway. The Yen tumbled in early trades amid news that Japan's PM lost 3 key seats in the by-election. Holiday-thinned trading exaggerates the USD/JPY price action. 

USD/JPY News

AUD/USD rallies toward 0.6600 on risk flows, hawkish RBA expectations

AUD/USD rallies toward 0.6600 on risk flows, hawkish RBA expectations

AUD/USD extends gains toward 0.6600 in the Asian session on Monday. The Aussie pair is underpinned by increased bets of an RBA rate hike at its May policy meeting after the previous week's hot Australian CPI data. Risk flows also power the pair's upside. 

AUD/USD News

Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?

Gold tests critical daily support line, will it defend?

Gold price is seeing a negative start to a new week on Monday, having booked a weekly loss. Gold price bears the brunt of resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand and a risk-on market mood amid Japanese holiday-thinned market conditions.

Gold News

Ethereum fees drops to lowest level since October, ETH sustains above $3,200

Ethereum fees drops to lowest level since October, ETH sustains above $3,200

Ethereum’s high transaction fees has been a sticky issue for the blockchain in the past. This led to Layer 2 chains and scaling solutions developing alternatives for users looking to transact at a lower cost. 

Read more

Week ahead: Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

Week ahead: Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too

Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures