Dollar on the backfoot, DXY trades south of 92.00

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Down 2.5 percent MTD, June remains on the ropes. Reclaiming May’s gains and also chipping into April’s upside, EUR/USD recently touched gloves with familiar support at $1.1857-1.1352.

Upstream is concentrated on 2021 peaks at $1.2349, with additional enthusiasm welcoming ascending resistance (prior support [$1.1641]).

Based on trend studies, the primary uptrend has been underway since price broke the $1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017. Additionally, price breached major trendline resistance, taken from the high $1.6038, in July 2020.

Daily timeframe:

Snapping a decisive three-day bearish phase, Monday—ahead of Quasimodo support at $1.1836— kicked off the final full week of June chalking up a recovery. With a focus now likely on the 200-day simple moving average at $1.1992, extending recovery gains could be in store.

A $1.1836 breach, on the other hand, helps validate June’s bearish tone, highlighting Quasimodo support from $1.1688. 

Reinforcing Monday’s gains, the RSI pencilled in hidden bullish divergence (commonly forms a trend continuation signal that suggests upside strength remains), with the value exiting oversold terrain (bullish cue).

H4 timeframe:

A closer examination of price action on the H4 scale informs traders a floor of support emerged just north of demand from $1.1794-1.1822, arranged under Quasimodo support at $1.1836 on the daily timeframe.

Overhead, resistance at $1.1937 calls for attention, followed by supply at $1.2006-1.1983 and resistance seen partnering with the zone at $1.1990 (38.2% Fib retracement value also visible at $1.2007). 

H1 timeframe:

The dollar echoed weakness on Monday—DXY elbowed back under 92.00—as markets digest the recent Fed-induced bid. Technically, this lifted EUR/USD above $1.19 to within a stone’s throw of local resistance at $1.1924. Territory above the latter unmasks a relatively clear path to the $1.20ish neighbourhood, joined by supply from $1.2006-1.1983 and the 100-period simple moving average, currently circling $1.1973.

The picture drawn from the RSI indicator reveals the value levelling off ahead of overbought territory. Should a dip occur, trendline support is seen, taken from the low 8.62.

Observed levels:

The monthly timeframe rebounding from support at $1.1857-1.1352, in addition to the daily timeframe discovering a floor ahead of Quasimodo support from $1.1836, emphasises a bullish setting. 

The above places H1 bulls in a favourable location, north of $1.19, with subsequent buying to perhaps pursue space north of H1 resistance at $1,924, targeting the $1.20 figure. Though do take into account this involves brushing aside H4 resistance at $1,1937.

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe: 

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited, though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Since the beginning of 2021, buyers and sellers have been battling for position south of trendline resistance (prior support - $0.4776 low) and supply from $0.8303-0.8082. That was, of course, until last week’s one-sided decline, movement throwing light on support at $0.7394. Additional downside pressure also brings light to demand at $0.7029-0.6664 (prior supply).

June is currently down by 2.5 percent.

Trend studies (despite the trendline resistance [$1.0582] breach in July 2020) show the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains in play until breaking $0.8135 (January high [2018]). 

Daily timeframe: 

Leaving supply-turned demand at $0.7453-0.7384 unchallenged, AUD/USD booked gains on Monday as the DXY slumped back under 92.00. It is worth noting the aforementioned demand aligns with a collection of Fib studies and monthly support at $0.7394.

The currency pair is now within touching distance of the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7550, collaborating closely with resistance at $0.7563.

Out of the RSI, the indicator exited oversold territory yesterday, action some traders view as a bullish cue. 

H4 timeframe: 

$0.7485 support made an entrance Monday, stirring a bullish vibe that landed price action within reach of daily resistance at $0.7563, closely shadowed by H4 resistance at $0.7588.

H1 timeframe: 

From the H1 chart, the technical picture has price toying with levels just beneath supply at $0.7558-0.7547, with a break here uncovering Quasimodo resistance at $0.7580, followed by the 100-period simple moving average at $0.7585 and then the $0.76 region. 

Downstream, support at $0.7511 is on the radar. 

Action from the RSI shows the value on the doorstep of overbought, eyeing resistance at 72.21.

Observed levels:

Knowing the daily timeframe is on the brink of shaking hands with the 200-day simple moving average at $0.7550 and resistance from $0.7563, a bearish theme could develop if the aforesaid barriers enter the fray. 

This shines light on the area between daily resistance and H4 resistance at $0.7588 (yellow) as a possible ceiling, as well as H1 resistance zone between $0.7605 and $0.7580 (orange).