Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
- In April, DN bought DKK2.2bn EUR/DKK in FX intervention.
- DN has now intervened a total of DKK19.6bn the past three months.
- We still expect a 10bp rate cut from DN near-term.
Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) just published April’s FX reserve and central bank balance sheet data. In April, DN bought DKK2.2bn EUR/DKK in FX intervention as EUR/DKK traded around the low point of 7.4360 in the latter half of the month. It brings total FX intervention over the past three months up to DKK19.6bn.
Three months of FX intervention has not eased the downwards pressure on EUR/DKK. It is still trading close to the 7.4360 level at the beginning of May. In our view, we have reached a point that warrants a 10bp rate cut from DN. It could potentially come already Thursday or one of the coming weeks if DN wants to stretch the use of FX intervention a little further.
The FX reserve declined to DKK438.7bn in April from DKK446.5bn as the government paid of further DKK10bn in foreign debt in Commercial Papers, which brings the outstanding issuance down to DKK50bn. The government net financing requirement in April was DKK28.8bn below the budget estimate of DKK35bn. Government deposits declined to DKK163bn from DKK194bn in March.
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