Consolidation Range: The EUR/USD started this week with an attack of the 1.34 level but failed to clear it after tagging 1.3403. It then fell to 1.3255 and found support, consolidated a little, and then rallied again to test the 1.34 resistance. It held during the 1/18 Asian-European session. As we wind down the week with the 1/18 US session, we see the EUR/USD in a larger general consolidation zone between the 1.3245 support (from Jan.10), and the 1.3403 resistance (from Jan.14).
Bias, targets: Ability to stay at the upper half of the consolidation zone would be a sign of bullish bias, but a push back below 1.30 for example should cause the market to focus on the 1.3245-1.3255 support area. Now further push below 1.3245 would open up a double top scenario for further bearish outlook. It would also break below the 200-hour SMA. Then you have the 1.32, 50% retracement and 61.8% retracement of 1.3150, which is reinforced by the December support pivot.
At this point, a hold above 1.33 and a push above 1.3350 refocuses on 1.34. A break above 1.3405 should revive the bullish outlook that has been the bias at least since Nov. 2012, with the 2012 high of 1.3485 in sight.
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