Simon Smith, Chief Economist for FX Pro, joined Zak Mir and Bill Hubard, Chief Economist for Bullion Capital, on the Tip TV Finance Show to discuss the fallout from the ECB meeting, and a view ahead to the assumed Fed interest rate hike next week.
Key Points:
Smith noted that people are now looking beyond December, with the long USD position being a crowded trade and seeming tired. He added investors may be tempted to close the long USD position and be prepared to start anew in 2016 after a Fed hike.
In terms of the ECB meeting, Smith commented that this time Draghi built up expectations too much and they couldn’t deliver what the market expected.
He continued to the proposed Fed interest rate hike, where he believed that emergency policy was a result of the financial crisis, and now we need normalisation as that is where the market works best. However, Smith urged that the worst thing to happen would be for the US to end up like Japan, who began to normalise and then had to reverse.
We are unlikely to see 4 rate hikes in 2016, commented Smith, who expected 2 maximum from the Federal Reserve.
When concerning recoveries, the UK has always been behind the US, whilst the Eurozone is yet to reach pre-crisis peak in output.
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