Littlefish FX Analysts
Littlefish FX
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (BST):
09:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate 108.5 v 107.9
11:15 EUR Eurogroup Meetings
13:30 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.2% v -0.4%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.7% v -1.4%
OVERNIGHT:
After initially pushing back down to the previously mentioned 1.0660 support level as the European PMIs came in on the soft side we witnessed a swift turn in USD sentiment as we pushed back to the top end of the range resulting in a 1.0848 high. For now we basically remain in the 1.06501.0860 medium term range with thin whippy trading conditions in between. Investor nerves appear slightly less frayed with regards the Greek debt drama as we move into this weekend’s European Finance ministers meeting but we have to continue to focus on the wires for developments which will determine short term price sentiment. Caution on any technical break and close above 1.0880.
UK March retail sales disappointed the markets, printed at -0.5% MoM against the forecast +0.4% MoM. GBPUSD dropped to an intraday low of 1.4957 from 1.5069 high after the release of weak retail sales data before stabilising late on. market has turned less bearish on GBP but caution is advised as we head into UK elections as we will likely witness some near term position adjustment which may add to volatility.
USDJPY had traded up to the high of 120.09 in European session while it dropped below 120 handle post the release of soft U.S. data. Market participants have reduced expectations of additional easing on the policy meeting held on 30 April. Next week should be quite a pivotal one (with FOMC, US GDP, PCE and BOJ), and levels to watch on both sides are 118.30 and 120.90. A break side can trigger a good healthy move.
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: Above 1.09 opens fourth test of 1.10 offers
GBP: 1.5130/60 key resistance for trend resumption
JPY: While 118.30 contains downside target 121.00 en route to retest of year to date highs, only below 118.30 concerns bullish view
CAD: 123/24.50 former support now becomes key resistance
AUD: While .7860/80 contains upside anticipate third test of key .7550 failure here opens the bearish target of .72, above .7880 alleviates downside pressure
KEY TRADES:
All comments, charts and analysis on this website are purely provided to demonstrate our own personal thoughts and views of the market and should in no way be treated as recommendations or advice. Please do not trade based solely on any information provided within this site, always do your own analysis.
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