Littlefish FX Analysts
Littlefish FX
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (BST):
09:30 GBP Unemployment Rate 5.6% v 5.7%
09:30 GBP Claimant Count Change -29.1K v -31.0K
09:30 GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.8% v 1.8%
10:00 EUR Final CPI y/y -0.1% v -0.1%
13:30 USD CPI m/m 0.2% v 0.2%
13:30 USD Core CPI m/m 0.2% v 0.2%
15:00 USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.8 v 91.2
17:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
OVERNIGHT:
Participants appear be taking a step back following an extremely volatile day yesterday which resulted in the EURUSD rallying from a 1.0626 low to a 1.0818 high. Tricky to determine direction from here as we remain in the middle of range and would expect players to await the key US CPI data event later in the day as the catalyst for fresh USD sentiment into the early part of next week. For now look towards 1.0820 for initial topside resistance with a move back through 1.0680/90 required to provide additional downside momentum with 1.0620 now key support.
The USD takes another leg lower overnight, but bears are somewhat disappointed with the sticky nature of USDJPY in spite of the pair testing pivotal levels. The presence of real money demand persists in dips and we expect markets to continue to range trade. Todays US CPI could be the catalyst of either a continuation of the USD selloff (possibly towards 118.40/00 next) or a rebound back towards 119.50/80
Another day, another big figure for GBP… The pair now rests above 1.49 and is nearing the psychological 1.5000 resistance level. Weak US data and a doveish bias from various Fed speakers continue to put pressure on USD positions, but at these heightened levels, and with the lingering risks from the elections in a few weeks, market is moving towards a neutral outlook on cable, leaning on 1.5000 especially on a closing basis
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: Above 1.0810 refocuses on fourth 1.10 test, 1.0620 key support
GBP: Daily close above 1.50 energises bulls, while this area caps expect consolidation
JPY: While 118.70/90 contains downside target 121.00 en route to retest of year to date highs, only below 118.30 concerns bullish view
CAD: 123.50 former support now becomes key resistance second close below here forewarns further downside
AUD: While .7860/80 contains upside anticipate third test of key .7550 failure here opens the bearish target of .72, above .7880 alleviates downside pressure
All comments, charts and analysis on this website are purely provided to demonstrate our own personal thoughts and views of the market and should in no way be treated as recommendations or advice. Please do not trade based solely on any information provided within this site, always do your own analysis.
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