GBP/USD backed up by 2009 highs

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD set to decline

“The euro/dollar has broken some higher-profile chart levels, but there hasn't been convincing follow-through.”

- HSBC (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The sell-off might not have been as strong as expected after a breach of the support at 1.35, but the risks are still considered to be heavily skewed to the downside. And even though a half of the monthly studies are pointing upwards, the path of least resistance currently leads South, towards the monthly S2 and S3 levels at 1.3436 and 1.3369 respectively. Meanwhile, the long-term target is 1.28—2013 lows.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The bulls are currently in a majority with 55% of the market, but their advantage over the bears (45%) remains insignificant. In the meantime, the percentage of orders placed to purchase the Euro dropped from 57% down to 47%.

GBP/USD erodes 1.7042/19

“It [BoE MPC vote] has left markets a little disappointed, and the pound has fallen on the news, but we don’t believe it’s so disappointing as to force GBP/USD below 1.70.”

- UKForex (based on MarketWatch)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Apparently, GBP/USD is not willing to use the opportunity to rebound from the 2009 high. If the price falls beneath 1.7042/19, the dip will most likely extend down to 1.6973/50 (monthly PP and 55-day SMA). There will also be a high probability of a test of the up-trend and 100-day SMA at 1.6890/32, despite five monthly indicators being bullish. In case both these demand areas are penetrated, the 200-day SMA at 1.67 will be exposed.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The sentiment is still distinctly bearish with respect to the British Pound, since as many as 67% of open positions are short. On the other hand, the share of commands to acquire the Sterling went up from 45% to 56%.

USD/JPY about to hit 101.83/73

“Looking at the higher U.S. Treasuries yields, you have a higher U.S. dollar.”

- Wells Fargo Securities (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  Slowly but surely the U.S. Dollar is outperforming the Yen, as it has received a bullish impetus after a test of 101. However, taking into account the number and toughness of resistances that USD/JPY has yet to breach, there are serious doubts whether the scenario implied by the monthly technical studies is going to be realised. But if the currency pair advances 100 pips North, the long-term bullish intentions will be confirmed.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  As it turned out, weakness of the bullish sentiment towards USD/JPY was only transient, and now we are back to 70% of the SWFX market being long. However, at the same time the number of buy orders 100 pips from the spot fell from 60 to 53%.

USD/CHF looks towards 2014 high

“There's a possibility we'll see something a little bit different from the Fed. The last Fed decision was before the last monster payrolls report and another month of inflation data hovering around 2 percent.”

• Pair’s Outlook

  Since USD/CHF closed above 0.90, it is already unlikely that the price is going to re-test the 2014 lows at 0.87. There are also other bullish signs, such as the 55-day SMA being above the 200-period moving average, and the 100-day SMA will also probably get above its longer-term counterpart soon as well. On the other hand, the exchange rate is currently fluctuating far away from this year’s high and the monthly indicators remain bearish.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The bullish traders continue to take up a dominant position in the market, being that 71% of open positions are long. Moreover, if we consider the orders set one figure from the spot, the share of the buy ones increased, namely from 43% to 49%.