Finally there is the dollar and the US economy. US data has been coming in above expectations for most of the month and the dollar has so far been slow to react, but has been looking more assured over the past week, especially against the yen which has seen seven consecutive days of gains. So far though, the mixed messages that have been emanating from the Fed have failed to give the market sufficient confidence that the dollar is on a more assured rising trend, which was expected at the beginning of the year, but was scuppered by the soft patch in data. For today, data is second tier in the form of existing home sales in the US, together with consumer confidence data for the Eurozone. Note that Australian CPI data is released overnight, with the headline rate of inflation seen rising from 2.7% to 3.2%. The Aussie remains firm overnight, with a stronger CPI figure giving scope for another push towards the 0.94 level.
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NFP: The ultimate litmus test for doves vs. hawks
US Nonfarm Payrolls will undoubtedly be the focal point of upcoming data releases. The estimated figure stands at 241k, notably lower than the robust 303k reported in the previous release and below all other readings recorded this year.