Aussie finds support below 0.86 in face of softer Chinese Manufacturing data

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollars downward plunge continued through domestic trade on Thursday as investors speculated on the timing of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike while Chinese Manufacturing reports fell below market expectations. Touching intraday lows at 0.8565 the Aussie dollar found support bouncing higher as investors jumped on the higher yielding asset squaring positions into the end of the week. Opening this morning at 0.8632 we expect a relatively tight trading range to be maintained into the weekly close with minimal headline macroeconomic data available to drive direction.  

• We expect a range today between 0.8550 – 0.8730

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar traded sideways for much of the trading day Thursday bouncing between 0.7805 and 0.7880. Despite an unexpected dip in PPI input and output the Kiwi remained relatively resilient as investors looked to square positions moving into the end of the week. With little headline data available traders will look to Credit Card Spending for direction as the only domestic item on an otherwise quiet global docket and we expect the NZD will remain relatively range bound throughout trade on Friday.   

• We expect a range today of 0.7810 – 0.7990.

Great British Pound:

The Sterling recovery continued through trade on Thursday as the currency looked to recoup losses suffered earlier in the week. Stronger than expected retail sales saw the Pound edge higher moving back through 1.57 and touching intraday highs of 1.5737. The Great British Pound has fallen dramatically over the past 3 weeks amidst speculation the BoE’s timeline to hike interest rates has been extended. Plunging over four cents to touch lows at 1.5593 this week it seems the currency has found strong support on the downside when approaching 1.56. Attentions today turn to Public Sector borrowing as the sole macroeconomic driver governing direction into the weekly close.      

• We expect a range today between 1.7880 – 1.8330

Majors:

The U.S dollar rallied across the board Thursday closing in on 5 year highs on Bloomberg’s correlated spot index while touching a 7 year high against the Japanese Yen. A core CPI inflation report showed an increase in price pressures of 0.2%, a welcome reading as Wednesday''s FOMC minutes showed policy makers debated the possibility inflation may stagnate in the face of languid global growth. The 18 nation Euro crept downward as manufacturing purchases slipped suggesting business growth is weakening and adding further scope to increased QE measures across the embattled currency bloc.  As the gap between Central Bank Policies continues to widen the depreciation of the Yen and Euro are expected to continue. The Euro appears to have found significant technical support around 1.24 as the market looks for definitive guidance from the ECB as to when and in what form quantitative easing will intensify with attention keenly focused on the Mario Draghi as he addresses the European Banking Congress tonight. The Japanese Yen has slumped some 2.2% this week and is the worst performs of 10 developed market currencies. With 120.00 now firmly in sight we expect the downward spiral to continue into next week as attentions turn to BoJ governor Kuroda for insight into further stimulus measures on Tuesday.  

Data releases

• AUD: No Data
• NZD: Credit Card Spending
• JPY: No Data   
• GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing and MPC Member Miles Speaks
• EUR: ECB President Draghi Speaks and German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
• USD: FOMC Member Mester Speaks