Greenback stronger on solid inflation numbers

Australian Dollar:

Tuesday began in a similar fashion to Monday as markets traded quietly on the back of limited data. The Chinese CB leading index numbers were shrugged off early by investors as the AUD continued to move within familiar ranges around the US93.75 cent handle. The major item on the economic docket locally saw RBA Governor Stevens address the Anika Foundation in Sydney and the Aussie finally found a slight push of momentum upwards. Stevens was fairly upbeat in his speech however made no mention of the AUD. Nonetheless the RBA Governor mentioned the growth pledge of the G20 could help bring economic activity back to life. Overnight on the back of strong US numbers the AUD broke the US94 cent mark yet this was short lived and the Aussie dropped back to open today at 0.9391. Today we have the highlight of the week with domestic inflation figures just before midday. The data released will be important for onlookers trying to gauge future monetary policy as the RBA has been extremely vocal in saying the acceptable inflation band sits between 2 and 3 per cent.

• We expect a range today of 0.9345 – 0.9435

New Zealand Dollar:

Unlike the Kiwi’s cross Tasman counterpart the higher yielding currency spent Tuesdays Asian trade moving in a similar range as there was limited volatility in the market. The NZ dollar barely moved from the open price of 0.8685 versus the Greenback shrugging off positive however low impact Chinese numbers released early on. With no local data to spur the Kiwi currency onlookers waited for offshore figures for guidance. Overnight the NZ dollar attempted to continue its advantage over the US dollar however strong inflation and home sales numbers saw the riskier currency drift back downwards losing all of the day’s gains to open this morning marginally weaker at 0.8668 versus the Greenback. Today will be the third day with overseas numbers needed to guide the NZ dollar as Wednesday presents another slim economic docket.

• We expect a range today of 0.8625 – 0.8715

Great British Pound:

The British Pound opens this morning at 1.7063 marginally lower against the US dollar as a robust array of inflationary data and home sales from the US was received in a positive light whilst against the higher yielding currencies the GBP had mixed movements. The Sterling edged lower against the AUD after upbeat remarks from RBA governor Glen Stevens to open this morning at 1.8164 whereas gained slightly against a directionless NZ dollar to 1.9683 with no local data to provide the high yielding Kiwi direction. In domestic data the Public Sector Net Borrowing was shown to be in a good position however CBI industrial order expectations showed to be struggling. Today will be the heaviest economic docket this week for the GBP as the market will receive vital information from the Bank of England in regards to their future plans surrounding a potential interest rate increase and the timeframes involved.

• We expect a range today of 1.8110 – 1.8210

Majors:

With no data out of the Eurozone to give direction investors watched as the Euro slid to an 8 month low against the Greenback. Inflationary data out of the US was shown to meet expectations for the month of June and the market watched as the US dollar rallied across the board. Later in the evening existing home sales data printed a strong increase underpinning the USD’s gains. Once again these strong signs from the market are continuing to hint that the US Federal Reserve will be looking to end their bond buying program in the next few months leaving the timeframe for a potential interest rate increase shorter than expected, sometime in 2015. Today’s economic docket is relatively light as eyes will turn to Thursday in the Eurozone and US for an array of manufacturing data, unemployment claims and home sales.

Data releases:

• AUD: CPI q/q, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
• NZD: No Data
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, BBA Mortgage Approvals, CBI Realized Sales, BOE Gov Carney Speaks
• EUR: Consumer Confidence
• USD: Crude Oil Inventories