Currency markets subdued over the Easter Break

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar opens this morning little changed, as expected with Australian, European and UK markets all being closed yesterday for Easter Monday. Opening this morning at a familiar level to where investors saw it last week at a rate of 0.9323 when valued against its US Counterpart, near-term highs around the 94 US cents mark have attracted some decent selling interest. Whilst markets are likely to remain flat today investors are already looking towards tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index where its expected prices to have risen by 0.8 percent during the first three months of this year, taking the year on year headline rate to 3.2 percent, a level the Reserve Bank of Australia would no doubt like lower.    

• We expect a range today of 0.9290 – 0.9360

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar has thrown up few surprises during the early parts of this week, drifting between a low of 0.8554 and a high of 0.8600 when valued against its US Counterpart, a trading range somewhat distorted by the Easter long weekend which saw liquidity and volumes lower across the board. Whilst US Stocks made a positive contribution to broader risk sentiment investors will be keen to stay on the sidelines today ahead of a key Chinese manufacturing index which is scheduled for release tomorrow followed by the RBNZ’s interest rate decision this Thursday. Unchanged this morning the New Zealand dollar buys 85.63 US Cents.

• We expect a range today of 0.8530 – 0.8600

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound has traded in a tight 40 basis points range over the past 24 hours when valued against its US Counterpart with the Easter Long weekend keeping volumes light. Whilst very little has transpired over the extended break there are a handful of key risk events lurking over the coming days which threaten to push the Sterling either side of existing levels. At the forefront of investors minds will the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy decision on Wednesday where its expected Mark Carney will continue to push back expectations surrounding a rise in rates amid improved macro fundamentals. Unchanged against the Greenback this morning at 1.6792, the Sterling is stronger against both the Aussie (1.8002) and the Kiwi (1.9601).

• We expect a range today of 1.7970 – 1.8030

Majors:

It was a quiet session across currency markets overnight with all major geography’s remaining closed for Easter Monday. Whilst US Stocks did notch up five consecutive day’s worth of gains last week amid signs economic progress is being made throughout the world’s largest economy futures markets continue to indicate that previous USD long positions have now been largely unwound with traders last week instead picking up other units like the EURO and GBP.  Whilst the USD/JPY is marginally stronger this morning at 102.601 the EUR/USD is lower at 1.3792. On the horizon this week investors will be looking towards interest rate decisions from the RBNZ and BOE as well as a statement from the ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday.  

Data releases

• AUD: CB Leading Index m/m
• NZD: No data today
• JPY: No data today
• GBP: No data today
• EUR: Consumer Confidence
• USD: Existing Home Sales