UK interest rate decision today

Today's Highlights

Federal Reserve is very reserved – USD weaker

Chinese slowdown overshadowed by strong Aussie employment

UK interest rate decision today

FX Market Overview

Aside from questions about judgement in the House of Commons and questions about flatulence in the House of Lords, there was some actual news out there yesterday you'll be pleased to hear.

Late yesterday we got to see the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting and, if anything, they proved that the Fed is as confused by the US recovery as everyone else. They appeared fearful of sending the wrong message to the markets when they left both the base rate and the QE programs on hold but the minutes clearly show they are in no hurry to raise interest rates and that they see inflation tending to slow rather than quicken. The US Dollar, which had weakened over the previous few days, lost even more ground after the release.

We heard overnight that Chinese exports fell 6.6% against a forecast of 4.8% growth and imports dropped 11.3% against a forecast of growth of 3.9%. Although the figures are a little better than the previous month, that overall drop in activity is not good news for China and neither is it good news for China's suppliers.

As such, you would have expected the Australian and New Zealand Dollars to have weakened on the news but a very welcome fall in Australian unemployment strengthened both of the Australasian Dollars. 18,100 fresh jobs were created in March and Australia's unemployment rate dropped from 6.0% to 5.8%. That's great news for jobs prospects in Australia but not such good news if you have to buy Australian Dollars. The GBP-AUD rate dropped to 1.77 overnight.

We also heard overnight that the UK housing market is at its most ebullient in 6 years. The RICS is suggesting prices are likely to rise on average 6% over the coming years but the regional nature of the improvement is still apparent.

Today's data diary is a busy one. The European Central Bank releases its monthly report this morning alongside Italian industrial production, Greek unemployment and a smattering of European inflation data.

Later on we get the Bank of England interest rate and QE decisions. No change is going to come from that but it will still produce a bout of nervousness from traders at around 11:00 GMT.

This afternoon brings US weekly jobless claims data and the import and export price indices. These are unlikely to be market moving and the US Dollar remains weak.

And it is definitely time to check out all the old clutter you have in your loft, basement, garage et al. I say this because a tiny porcelain cup, dating back to the Ming Dynasty 500 years ago has been sold at auction for the equivalent of £21.5 million to a collector and museum owner in Shanghai. It is barely more than 3 inches across so have a really good look in that box right at the back. You never know.