The lack of specific time frame by the Federal Reserve over interest rate hike and/or quashing market expectation of a June interest rate hike has resulted in profit booking of long US dollar positions. Traders will now take positions for the “Easter Vacation”, next quarter and US March nonfarm payrolls. There should be higher manufacturing job gains in March as US manufacturers prepare for higher Easter sales. The snow effect is also less in March, so housing sector demand other economic parameters will be better than expected. Euro/usd needs to break and trade over 1.1305 in the short term to attract short covering and option markets. In case euro/usd does not break 1.1305 in April, then I once again see parity in April itself.
Indian importers will be using the current dip to cover their near term payables.
Usd/inr March 15 (expiry on 27th March 15):
- Usd/inr can fall to 62.2750 and 62.0375 as long as it trades below 62.7950. Only a break of 62.7950 will attract short covering.
Euro/inr March 15 (expiry on 27th March 15):
- Euro/inr can rise to 68.5025 as long as it trades over 67.1250. There will be sellers only if euro/inr trades below 67.1250 in UK session.
Gbp/Inr March 15 (expiry on 27th March 15):
- Cable needs to break and trade over 93.5450 for another wave of rise to 94.1350 and 94.7250. On the lower side initial support is at 92.8175.
- Yen/inr needs to trade over 52.1225 today to rise to 52.3750-52.5650. On the lower side 51.9150 is the initial support with 51.6850 as key support.
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