Holidays are over. There are no more continuous big holidays for the next few months. The finance minister asking for an interest rate cut may be accepted by the Reserve Bank of India as inflation will remain on the softer side for the next few months (unless global crude oil prices zoom). The FOMC meet this week will be the key and can set the direction for the US dollar for the rest of the year. The direction of US interest rate for next year will be the key.
There will be position squaring and rebuilding as October future expire. Short term futures and options traders will start taking position for December series. Fundamentals of the Indian economy will be the key till March 2015. There still needs to be more evidence that Indian economy will be able to withstand global shocks as well domestic shocks in the form of excess weather changes among others.
Fundamentals will be the key for emerging market currencies for the next six months apart from the ability to absorb higher energy shocks (if any).
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Resistance is at 61.7875 with 61.4275 and 61.1350 as support. Only a break of 61.7875 will result in further gains.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 78.1225 to rise to 78.52-78.86. There will be sellers only below 78.1225 with 77.79 and 77.26 as the supports.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): There is a technical congestion between 99.14 and 99.25. Only a break of 99.14-99.25 zone will result in further gains. Initial support is at 98.92 and there will be sellers only below 98.92.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can rise to 57.53-57.96 as long as it trades over 56.7675. There will be sellers only below 56.7675.
There will be position squaring and rebuilding as October future expire. Short term futures and options traders will start taking position for December series. Fundamentals of the Indian economy will be the key till March 2015. There still needs to be more evidence that Indian economy will be able to withstand global shocks as well domestic shocks in the form of excess weather changes among others.
Fundamentals will be the key for emerging market currencies for the next six months apart from the ability to absorb higher energy shocks (if any).
Usd/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): Resistance is at 61.7875 with 61.4275 and 61.1350 as support. Only a break of 61.7875 will result in further gains.
Euro/inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It needs to trade over 78.1225 to rise to 78.52-78.86. There will be sellers only below 78.1225 with 77.79 and 77.26 as the supports.
Gbp/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): There is a technical congestion between 99.14 and 99.25. Only a break of 99.14-99.25 zone will result in further gains. Initial support is at 98.92 and there will be sellers only below 98.92.
Jpy/Inr November 2014 (expiry on 26th November): It can rise to 57.53-57.96 as long as it trades over 56.7675. There will be sellers only below 56.7675.
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