Rupee weaker on US dollar gains


Gains in the US dollar will prevent rupee from sharp gains. Albeit there can be mild weakness today and thereafter a range bound trade. Falling crude oil prices will be a boon to Indian economy and Indian economic planners. Thereafter depending on the monsoon affect, interest rates in India could see an earlier than expected interest rate cut. The next one month will be crucial for India. The NDA government is in state elections mode. Some the bitter pills could be delayed till then. US economic data releases point to steady growth to higher growth. 

Indian stock markets are partly gaining at the expense of Russia and Europe. Indian stock markets will fall and rupee will see a mild phase of weakness if at all there is a compromise between European Union and Russia. 

Usd/inr August 2014:  A break of 61.05 will result in 61.26-61.76. Initial support is at 60.79 and there will be sellers only below 61.05.

Euro/inr August 2014: A fall below 81.05 will pave the way for 80.80 and 80.39. Overall euro/inr is bearish as long as it trades below 81.56.

Gbp/Inr August 2014: Key support is at 101.12 and there will be sellers below 101.12 to 101.02 and 100.87. Only a break of 101.52 will resume the bullish trend. 

Jpy/Inr August 2014: There will be a technical break down below 59.06 to 58.75 and 58.37. Only a break of 59.42 will resume the intraday bullish zone.

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