There are lots of US economic data releases this week. BRIC summit will be closely watched. Federal Reserve Beige book could give us a bit of hint whether interest in USA could rise early next year. Better than expected US economic data releases has failed to translate into big gains for the greenback against the major currencies. This is the global market so far.
As far as India is concerned there can be mild profit taking in stock markets as the budget is over. Big policy changes will happen only after the monsoon picture is clear (by early September). Then the all-important Maharashtra state elections in October-November and it could be the first real test for the Narendra Modi government. For now the focus will be on implementation.
India’s May industrial output 4.70%. India’s May manufacturing output 4.80%. India’s April-May industrial output 4.0%. Indian economic data releases in May suggest that worst is over for India and that the best will take a few more quarter to come.
In short, there can be mild weakness in the rupee. Unless there are signs of sustained weakness in the rupee, exporters and others will continue to sell forward their near term receivables while importers will be looking to cover only their weekly payables or fortnightly payables.
Usd/inr July 2014: There is a technical congestion between 59.76-60.02 and usd/inr needs to trade over this zone to target 60.34-60.76. Only a daily close below 59.76 for four consecutive days will result in short term bullish zone.
Euro/inr July 2014: Key price to watch is 81.79. (a) Euro/inr trades below 81.79, then chances of a fall to 81.47 and 81.05 are high (b) Only a break of 82.03 will resume the intraday bullish zone to 82.29-82.76.
Gbp/Inr July 2014: Cable needs to trade over 102.70 to rise to 103.10-103.46. Initial support is at 102.70 and there will be sellers only below 102.70 to 102.49-102.19
Jpy/Inr July 2014: Key weekly support is at 58.95 and jpy/inr needs to trade over 58.95 this week to rise to 60.10. Big sell off will come if and only if jpy/inr does not break 60.27 in the next three weeks.
As far as India is concerned there can be mild profit taking in stock markets as the budget is over. Big policy changes will happen only after the monsoon picture is clear (by early September). Then the all-important Maharashtra state elections in October-November and it could be the first real test for the Narendra Modi government. For now the focus will be on implementation.
India’s May industrial output 4.70%. India’s May manufacturing output 4.80%. India’s April-May industrial output 4.0%. Indian economic data releases in May suggest that worst is over for India and that the best will take a few more quarter to come.
In short, there can be mild weakness in the rupee. Unless there are signs of sustained weakness in the rupee, exporters and others will continue to sell forward their near term receivables while importers will be looking to cover only their weekly payables or fortnightly payables.
Usd/inr July 2014: There is a technical congestion between 59.76-60.02 and usd/inr needs to trade over this zone to target 60.34-60.76. Only a daily close below 59.76 for four consecutive days will result in short term bullish zone.
Euro/inr July 2014: Key price to watch is 81.79. (a) Euro/inr trades below 81.79, then chances of a fall to 81.47 and 81.05 are high (b) Only a break of 82.03 will resume the intraday bullish zone to 82.29-82.76.
Gbp/Inr July 2014: Cable needs to trade over 102.70 to rise to 103.10-103.46. Initial support is at 102.70 and there will be sellers only below 102.70 to 102.49-102.19
Jpy/Inr July 2014: Key weekly support is at 58.95 and jpy/inr needs to trade over 58.95 this week to rise to 60.10. Big sell off will come if and only if jpy/inr does not break 60.27 in the next three weeks.
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