Direction is downward for the rupee

Indian rupee is gaining on expectation that lower commodity prices will translate into lower current account deficit.  Rupee is at a critical juncture where the next two weeks trend could tell us the direction till end June. 53.70 is the key support for usd/inr may futures and there will be a crash to 53.06 and 52.50. Yen may futures needs to trade over 54.06 to prevent another round of selling. We expect the rupee to gain further will prefer to use a sell on rise strategy for May futures with a stop loss of 55.75  till end may. With government hell bent on selling even national importance sectors such as telecom (proposed 100% FDI) to overseas investors among other rupee will gain. 
 

Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders

• USD/INR APRIL 2013: Sell below 54.03 stop loss 54.13 for 53.9225-53.7225
• EURO/INR APRIL 2013: Sell on rise with a stop loss of over 71.22 for Monday
• GBP/INR APRIL 2013: Watch 82.60 and trade accordingly
• JPY/INR APRIL 2013: Buy if and only if jpy/inr trades over 55.0600

TECHNICAL VIEW 

US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) APRIL 2013 – (CURRENT PRICE 54.0375)
Bullish over 54.0675 with 54.3025-54.6025 as price targetBearish below 53.9225 with 53.7725 and 53.5650 as price targetNeutral Zone: 53.9225-54.0675

• 54.06 is the key support and there will be another wave of selling below 54.0600
• Key weekly support is at 54.0600

EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) APRIL 2013 – (CURRENT PRICE 70.5850)
Bullish over 70.8300 with 71.2775 and 71.7625 as price targetBearish below 70.5425 with 70.2250-70.0675 as price targetNeutral Zone: 70.5425-70.8300

• Euro/inr needs to break and trade over 70.8300 else it will fall to 70.2725-69.9025
• We prefer a sell on rise strategy as long as euro/inr trades below 71.3200

UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) APRIL 2013 – (CURRENT PRICE 82.4850)
Bullish over 82.6975 with 83.0225 and 83.5675 as price targetBearish below 82.2225 with 82.0950 and 81.6900 as price targetNeutral Zone: 82.2225-82.6975

• Cable needs to trade over 82.6975 to target 83.32-83.75
• There will be another wave of selling only below 82.5650

JAPANESE YEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) ARPIL 2013 – (CURRENT PRICE 54.9425)
Bullish over 55.0675 with 55.3025 and 56.0125 as price targetBearish below 54.4850 with 54.0975 and 54.0225 as price targetNeutral Zone: 54.4850-55.0675

• Key long term support for May futures is at 54.06 and long as yen may futures trades over 54.06 we prefer a buy on dips strategy. 
• Only a break of 55.0675 will resume the uptrend. 

Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions