Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
Its the last day of the quarter and with expiry and some window dressing this is not the day for traders to get brave all of a sudden. With WTI up 4c and Brent up 12, it was natural gas that took the riband climbing to $2 for the first time for many months. I would expect today to be modestly weaker on the physical front as barring any special situations orders will be minimal, investors who are still surprisingly long crude oil may take the opportunity to close one or two positions.
Yesterday the EIA stats showed another build, admittedly 2.3m barrels was below the 2.8m forecast but stocks remain at their peaks and little can be done to change that yet. Refiners are trying hard, utilisation is now 90.4%, an eleven year high but April can be an unforgiving month, nevertheless gasoline demand is strong. The gasoline draw of 2.5m barrels proved that but stocks are still relatively high. Finally, the Reuters survey of Opec production came out and showed that in March output was up by 100/- b/d on February primarily down to the expected increase in Iranian exports.
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