Malcolm Graham-Wood
Independent Analyst
I have worked it out, eventually. The worlds biggest investment banks are playing the ‘how low can our forecasts go’ game in order to have the bragging rights down the line. Up until yesterday those rights were firmly held by the vampire squids with their $20 estimate but with Standard Chartered going down to $10 yesterday all bets are off, who will be the hero with a zero forecast I wonder?
The EIA tried to make things better by coming out with a February fall of 116/- b/d from US shale to match their January guess, regrettably the market wanted more and the news was deemed bad. The CBOE volatility index hit a 7 year high rising 13% to 63, indicating further worries, when Brent expires later in the week it may get worse, not better…
Finally, I knew it would happen, US retail gasoline prices have now fallen below 2 bucks a gallon although to be fair in some states it has been well below that for a while. Overall across the country the price is now $1.996 a gallon and I therefore expect the 9.3m b/d consumption figure to be beaten well before the driving season. (Is this the earliest ever mention?)
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