OPEC Meeting: In this fight there are no rules

So, lets establish the rules for next week ahead of the Opec meeting shall we? Firstly as someone amusingly once said, in this fight there are no rules, this applies to Opec meetings as much, if not more, than a Saturday night brawl outside a pub. Next week the one thing that can be guaranteed is that everyone with any sort of interest in the oil price will either say something positive or find someone who can. Positions will be taken ahead of the meeting so lets stick with the golden rule that it is almost always wrong to believe anything that anyone says, this applies as much, if not more to Oil Ministers or Secretary Generals. Secondly, dont believe any conspiracy theories, I have been saying for months that most of these participants aren’t smart enough to think about them, let alone put them into practice. Finally, remember that what we say and what we do are two completely different things, this is particularly important when listening to the press conference afterwards…

On that basis the oil price has rallied on the back of comments by a number of Opec participants most notably the Venezuelan Foreign Minister who said that his country would be prepared to ‘reduce oil output if other members would share the burden’. It is worth noting that Venezuela has the biggest reason of anyone in Opec to get the price back up and this comment probably comes into all three categories above.

Economic news of course is not malleable so the Philadelphia Manufacturing survey that was the best for 21 years and the jobless claims in the US remaining below 300/- must have helped bolster the price of oil as well.

Finally, the news from the Iran nuclear talks is not good, with the deadline approaching the vibes are that an extension until early next year may be the best possible outcome. There are so many conflicting aspects to the talks its hardly surprising that agreement is tough and the situation in Iraq, the intransigence of Mr Putin and the rise of the Republicans muddy the waters. At least it would mean that the Iranian Minister will not have that extra 1m b/d in his back pocket in Vienna.