Crude Oil Unchanged as US Becomes Net Exporter

The Japanese yen declined in the Asian session after weaker-than-expected household data. In October, spending contracted at an annualized rate of minus 0.3%. This was weaker than the growth of 1.2% traders were expecting. On a monthly basis, spending increased by 1.8%, which was higher than the estimated 1.4%. The average cash earnings rose by an annual rate of 1.5%, which was lower than the consensus estimate of 1.0%. This data measures the change in the employment income including overtime pay.

Crude oil was largely unchanged even after supportive inventory data from the US. Data released by the EIA showed that inventories sunk by more than 7 million barrels. This was much lower than the contraction of about 900K barrels they were expecting. Previously, API data had shown an increase in inventories by more than 5.3 million barrels. The drawdown reported by EIA was the first since September this year. Meanwhile, data from EIA showed that the US exported more crude oil than it imported for the first time in decades last week. This has been a goal of many administrations.

The US dollar was little moved ahead of this week’s Non-Farm Payrolls data. The numbers are expected to show that the economy added 200K jobs in November after adding 250K in October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.7% while the participation rate is expected to remain at 62.9%. This data will come a day after ADP’s numbers showed that 179K people were hired. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the economy’s job position was very strong in what sounded like a hawkish statement. He said this at a housing conference in Washington.


The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1373, which is close to where it has been trading this week. Throughout the week, the pair has been forming a triangle pattern and with US jobs numbers expected today, it is likely to breakout in either direction. The RSI is at 54, which is considered a neutral level and so are the moving averages. Therefore, today might be an important day for the pair because of the NFP numbers.



The USD/JPY pair continued the upward momentum started yesterday. It reached an intraday high of 112.88. The 15-day EMA is currently passing the 25-day EMA in a bullish move while the RSI is moving up and is now at 55 while the price is close to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands. The pair could continue moving up today until the NFP numbers are released.



Palladium lost its luster as the most valuable precious metal. The price has dropped to $1190, while gold is currently at $1240. On the daily chart below, the XPD/USD RSI is currently below the overbought level of 70 while the pair is trading above the double EMAs. The momentum indicator is moving down too and is now close to the neutral level. The pair could see some downward pressure as traders take profit.


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