China: Taiwan election points to status quo, but not further escalation

Key takeaways

As expected, the independence-leaning DPP secured the presidency for the third time in a row as their candidate Lai Ching-te won with a 6.7 percentage points margin to KMT’s Hou Yu-ih.

However, Lai’s victory was smaller than his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen and DPP lost the majority in the parliament. Hence Lai is ruling with a weaker mandate than Tsai Ing-wen. Lai’s victory was also secured by keeping a more moderate tone on independence than before he became presidential candidate suggesting that he is unlikely to increase confrontations with China. It also reflects a mood among the Taiwanese where polls show a clear majority in favour of the status quo – and more so over the past year (see charts).

Overall, the election points to continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait but not a further escalation. China will continue to deter Taiwanese independence with military drills around the island and Taiwan and the US are likely to continue to have closer relations but without crossing China’s red line. US president Joe Biden repeated after the election that the US did not support Taiwanese independence.

Result: DPP’s Lai win presidency but loses the parliament

DPP’s Lai Ching-te won 40.1% of the vote ahead of KMT’s Hou Yu-Ih who got 33.5%. The third candidate Ko Wen-je from Taiwan’s People’s Part (TPP) won 26.5%, suggesting that the fairly new party is going to play an increasing role in Taiwanese politics in the years to come. As KMT, the TPP is leaning towards a more moderate line towards Beijing than DPP in favour of keeping the status quo with less confrontation with the mainland.

While winning the election, Lai’s 40.1% voter support was a decline from four years ago where Tsai Ing-wen secured 57.1%. DPP also lost the majority in the parliament as the KMT took the most seats with 52 ahead of DPP’s 51. TPP secured 8 seats while two independents secured a seat each. After the election no single party has the majority in the parliament.

Reactions: China repeats unification is inevitable, Biden states US do not support independence

China’s reaction to the election has so far not pointed to an escalation of tensions but as could be expected a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, Chen Binhua, stated that “our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock”. He also said that “the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island” suggesting that Beijing sees a slight encouragement in the fact that the while retaining the presidency, DPP did not secure the majority of votes this time. It remains to be seen whether they will perform new high-scale military exercises in response to the DPP’s victory of the presidency.

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