Bouncing back

Stock markets are bouncing back on Tuesday as some calm returns following the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse and traders look ahead to the Fed tomorrow.

It's been a wild couple of weeks and while I, along with everyone else, am hopeful that the worst is behind us, I can't say I'm particularly confident. The response to recent events has been impressive from central banks, regulators, and governments, and while we can commend them for their firefighting skills, only time will tell if they've been successful in extinguishing the flames.

But markets are clearly comforted by the measures that have been put in place to prevent a full-blown banking crisis. If this can be followed by a few days of calm with no other banks emerging as being at risk of collapse without major intervention, stock markets could continue to recover.

At the same time, I would expect interest rate expectations to rise as the risk of imminent contagion and recession decrease. I'm not sure they'll quite revert back to where they were as investors and central banks will be bruised by events of the last couple of weeks and perhaps a little more cautious for now.

That adds another layer of intrigue to the Fed decision tomorrow that stretches well beyond whether it hikes by 25 basis points or not. The messaging will be crucial and could be a major driving force in markets, barring further upheaval in the banking sector.

Will economic fears fully abate?

Oil prices are rising again on Tuesday, adding to Monday's recovery to trade more than 6% from the lows. Brent fell close to $70 yesterday, the lowest level since late-2021 is a sign of how much the banking crisis has reverberated throughout the markets. Contagion risks recession and that means much weaker demand, although of course there is more than one side to that equation when it comes to the price of oil.

Either way, it's bouncing back today alongside risk appetite and it will be interesting to see where it settles. It traded within a wide range from early December to last week and there's no guarantee it will just fall back into that again if the dust settles.

Paring gains ahead of the Fed

Gold is pulling back for a second day, paring gains as some calm returns to markets and yields move higher. It's performed extremely well over the last couple of weeks, aided by a sharp decline in bond yields, a softer dollar, and a dash for safety so it makes sense that it's giving some of that back. The first test of support falls around $1,960, around the early February peak, although if sentiment continues to improve, that may not hold for long. That said, it won't take much for risk aversion to return and then there's the Fed tomorrow which could have a big impact, depending on how hawkish it chooses to be.