IMF Calls for low Growth thru 2020

Good morning.....It was an interesting day yesterday with the major indexes finishing mixed; Dollar drop sharply, oil surges, IMF cuts global growth, FED cuts 1Q forecast for GDP, JPM beats, JNJ beats, WFC disappoints (just a bit), Avon Products considers a sale of the company, China's economy grows at the slowest rate since '09, Retail sales rise (but not as much as expected) and Intel beats (PC mkt cools but demand heats up for data center storage.

On the geo-political front; Obama removes Cuba from the list of state terror sponsors, He makes a deal with congress to review the Iranian nuclear deal, and NJ Gov Chris Christie (and Presidential hopeful) tells it like it is....the 'system is broken' ...he calls for a major overhaul of Social Security and taxes....casting himself as 'the truth teller' in a crowded field of ..............(you can fill in the blank). This is going to be interesting now......Christie separates himself from 'the pack' and makes this very controversial (but honest) call.......so how will the deck stack up now?

Back to the mkts.......Investors/traders focused on both the slew of broad macro data and the key earnings releases. The falling dollar giving some analysts the sense that its recent outperformance is beginning to weaken......and so far - the strength that these same analysts have been screaming about is not showing up in the earnings....but the season is still young...we will be hearing from more multinationals in the days ahead...so hold on.....

In Washington the IMF is holding court making headlines as they CUT US GDP growth by 0.5% pointing squarely at the strength of the dollar......They go onto say that emerging mkts are headed for their 6th straight year of slowing growth as well.......highlighting China, Russia & Brazil. And they made it clear that although global growth is in 'roughly' on par with the average of the past 30 yrs - it is NOT enough to cause economies to break out of the nightmare of the 2008 GFC noting that there is still high unemployment, heavy debt burdens, and stagnant growth in some of the world's largest economies......In fact they go onto say that"

"Together with aging workforces and deteriorating productivity levels around the world, the global economy faces a bleak, low growth outlook through 2020"

Another martini please!

And as if this wasn't sobering enough we learn that the Atlanta Fed cut (again) their 1st Qtr GDP forecast to just 0.1% (from 0.3% which was cut from 0.6% earlier in the qtr) - So they have essentially cut the forecast by 84% since January 1. I'm just sayin.....

And the mkt remains stuck in a very tight range - 2075/2110 - confused by all of the conflicting data points......so what you see is - it is better to sit and wait for more clarity before making any major decision.......and that is reflected in the lack of volumes and lack of volatility.

US futures are +4 pts after having gone negative overnight.....today will bring us multiple big earnings reports....look for BAC - (they reported and BEAT - stock has little reaction in pre-mkt) , USB, SCHW, DAL....in addition there are all kinds of conference calls to discuss results....CSX - 888-327-6279, USB 866-316-1409, PNC (they beat as well) 800-708-3128...to name just a few.....

After the bell we get NFLX, SNDK and a few others..... On the eco front we get Mort apps -2.3%, Empire Manufacturing (NY region) of 7.17, Ind Prod of -0.3%, Capacity Util of 78.6%, and the Fed's Beige Book - which will go onto tell us how great the US is doing....and not to pay attention to the 'man behind the curtain'.....

Overnight in Asia - mkts mixed..... China data was “ok.” 1Q GDP met the 7.0% est - but made very clear that this is the slowest pace since the GFC......Industrial production and retail sales both missed causing those mkts to remain a bit choppy. Japan -0.2%, Hong Kong +0.2%. China -1.24% and ASX -0.64%.

In Europe - those mkts are all higher as they await the ECB monetary policy decision.....now what do they really expect? The ECB will announce at 7:30 am (EST) their assessment of the Eurozone economy and what it's latest rate decision will be.....Really? Does anyone expect rates to go up??? Draghi to give a press conf after the announcement to detail the success so far of the epic QE program that he launched.....and some hope that he will give a timeline for an exit....HELLO???? It's only been ONE MONTH.....are they kidding? FTSE +0.33%, CAC 40 + 0.73%, DAX +0.48%, EURSTOXX +0.7%, SPAIN +0.5% and ITALY +0.8%.

Rigatoni w/Arugula & Canneloni Beans

This is a vegetarian dish that is easy and quick to make if you are not a vegetarian then feel free to add some Italian sweet sausage*.

Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil. Add the Rigatoni's and cook until aldente - 8 / 10 mins.

In a sauté pan - heat up some olive oil, crushed garlic and a sliced/chopped "red" onion. Sauté until the onion is soft and translucent. (At this point you can add a cup of white wine if you wish and allow the alcohol to burn off a bit)....then add a can of cannelloni beans - juice and all and stir to heat up...about 4 mins or so.

Now add the arugula and stir. Arugula will wilt - no worries. Drain the pasta - saving a mugful of the pasta water....return pasta to pot and add back 1/4 cup of the water to re-moisten. Next add beans and arugula - handful of Parmegiana cheese and toss. Serve immediately in warmed bowls with freshly toasted garlic bread.

*If you add the sausage - do it this way....grill the sausage.....remove and slice into bite size pieces....add to the sauté pan BEFORE you add the beans and arugula. Stir and cook for 3 mins or so....Then add beans etc....


Buon Appetito.