AUD/USD trades below US$0.67

Daily currency update

The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. The AUD/USD dropped further during the American session and printed a fresh daily low at 0.6672 amid a stronger US dollar across the board. The Aussie dollar fell by 1.45% yesterday erasing all daily gains. AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6709 at the time of writing. On the local data front yesterday Australia and New Zealand Group (ANZ) highlighted fears of a slowdown in Aussie spending and challenged the AUD/USD bulls. “Total ANZ-observed spending from 20 Nov – 18 Dec was just 10% higher than in 2019, despite a CPI increase of 10.5% between Dec 2019 and Sep 2022 and population growth of 1.8% from Dec 2019 to Jun 2022,” said the latest report. In other news China’s budget deficit hit a record high for the first 11 months of 2022 and weigh on the AUD/USD prices. On the assumption that China re-opens next year and the prices of Australia’s energy exports remain firm, we would look for the AUD to outperform both its major counterparts. Looking ahead today on the economic calendar and the Australia Treasury Department will release the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, which compares the government’s fiscal performance to the strategy outlined in the prior Annual Budget. This is the last OFX daily commentary update for 2022. We will return on January 9, 2023. We thank you for your readership over the last 12 months and wish you a very happy and safe holiday season.

Key movers

The US dollar recovered its shine on Thursday, and despite still trading within familiar levels against most of its major rivals, it currently stands near weekly highs. The Greenback was boosted by an upbeat US Gross Domestic Product report. US economic growth in the third quarter was firmer than previously estimated, reflecting upward revisions to consumer spending and business investment. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or the total value of all goods and services produced in the economy, increased at a 3.2% annualised rate during the period. That compares with a previously reported 2.9% advance. Personal consumption was revised significantly higher, advancing 2.3% in the latest report compared to 1.7% in an earlier estimate and reflecting stronger services spending. UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2022, downwardly revised from a first estimate fall of 0.2%. In output terms, the services sector grew by 0.1% while the production sector fell by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2022 (including falls in all 13 manufacturing sub-sectors) as well as a fall in the construction sector of 0.2%. The level of real GDP in Quarter 3 2022 is now estimated to be 0.8% below where it was pre-coronavirus at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, downwardly revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% below.

Expected ranges

• AUD/USD: 0.6550 – 0.6750 ▼
• AUD/EUR: 0.6200 – 0.6400 ▼
• GBP/AUD: 1.8000 – 1.8200 ▲
• AUD/NZD: 1.0550 – 1.0750 ▲
• AUD/CAD: 0.9000 – 0.9200 ▲