Asian momentum rally from US jobs on Fri loses steam in Europe as services PMIs come in

Notes/Observations

- Oil moves higher after OPEC+ agreed to cut overall production targets from 2024 by 1.4M bpd, in an announcement on Sunday.

- European Services PMIs missed targets or were revised lower for Spain, Italy, France, Germany and Euro Zone but still remain relatively strong in expansion territory and in comparison, to manufacturing. UK bucks the trend with slight upward revision in final reading.

- European inflation continues to fall, Swiss May CPI in line with estimates at 2.2% YoY, but notable Core CPI dropped to 1.9% YoY from 2.2% prior (drops into SNB target for first time since 2022).

-For geopolitics, Russia said it is ready to talk to the US on nuclear arms controls, following White House statement on Fri that US would abide by new START nuclear arms curbs until 2026 expiration if Russia did the same.

- Asia closed higher with Nikkei225 out-performing at +2.2%. EU indices are mixed -0.2% to +0.6. US futures are -0.3% to +0.1%. Gold -0.4%, DXY +0.2%; Commodity: Brent +2.3%, WTI +2.4%, TTF +8.3%; Crypto: BTC -1.2%, ETH -1.4%.

Asia

- China May Caixin PMI Services registered its 5th straight expansion (57.1 v 55.2e).

- Australia May Final PMI Services confirmed its 2nd month of expansion (52.1 v 51.8 prelim).

- Japan May Final PMI Services confirmed it 8th month of expansion and record high reading (55.9 v 56.3 prelim).

Europe

- ECB’s Visco (Italy) stated that a sharp fall in energy prices should help control inflation; Expecting a cooling in core inflation.

- Bank of England looks to broaden reform of deposit guarantee scheme to better protect depositors from collapse of smaller banks.

- UK PM Sunak said to want to cut National Insurance (NI) or income tax by 2% at next budget in Apr, before next general election.

- S&P affirmed France sovereign rating at AA; Outlook Negative.

- Canadian ratings agency DBRS Morningstar affirmed Germany sovereign at AAA, outlook stable.

- Fitch affirmed UK sovereign rating at AA-; outlook negative.

Energy

- OPEC+ agreed to cut overall production targets from 2024 by a further total of 1.4M bpd.

- Saudi Energy Min Abdulazi announced that the Kingdom to voluntarily cut of additional 1M bpd for the month of July; could be extended beyond if needed [unilateral decision].

- Russia Dep PM Novak stated that it would extend its voluntary oil production cut of 500,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2024.

- Next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Nov 26th in Vienna.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.1% at 463, FTSE +0.6% at 7650, DAX +0.1% at 16056, CAC-40 -0.1% at 7263, IBEX-35 +0.4% at 9355, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 2644, SMI +0.3% at 11475, S&P 500 Futures 0.0%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices opened with a bias towards the red but later came up to trade generally mixed on relatively low volume; Cyprus, Denmark, Greece, Romania and Ukraine closed for holidays; telecom and energy among the better performing sectors; underperforming sectors lead by consumer discretionary and materials; oil & gas subsector supported while utilities sector under pressure following jump in crude prices over the weekend; Salmar to sell Froy to GSAM; Novo Nordisk to take stake in Biocorp; SAIC expected to report in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Watkin Jones [WJG.UK] +6.0% (Successful £155M forward sale with L&G and Clanmil).

- Healthcare: Transgene [TNG.FR] +23.1% (presents immunological data demonstrating that TG4001), Indivior [INDV.UK] +10.0% (agrees $103M settle with US antitrust).

- Telecom: Deutsche Telekom [DTE.DE] +1.8% (Amazon said to be in talks to offer low cost mobile service to US Prime members - Fri).

- Utilites: Uniper [UN01.DE] -17.7%.

Speakers

- ECB’s Visco (Italy): Sharp fall in energy prices should help control inflation; Expecting a cooling in core inflation as well.

- ECB’s Vujcic (Croatia) stated that euro zone inflation risks were still tilted to the upside. Noted that wage pressures were still very likely.

- Turkey VP Yilmaz stated that the govt would continue to prioritize the fight against inflation.

- Hungary Central Bank Dep Gov Virag reiterated plan to keep 'strict' rate policy.

- German VDMA Engineering Association: Apr Orders -20.0% y/y.

- Russia Govt Spokesperson Peskov stated that was prepared to talk to US on nuclear arms control. Noted that OPEC+ was an important format to ensure stability on global energy market.

Currencies/Fixed Income

- USD was holding steady on former footing after finding some impetus last Friday after the US jobs report. Dealers still believing the Fed would keep interest rates higher for longer.

- EUR/USD was steady throughout the session at 1.0690 area and was little phased by the softer-than-expected PMI Services data. Data offset by continued rhetoric of ECB members concern over core inflation.

- USD/JPY moved back above the 140 area aided by higher US bond yields.

Economic data

- (DE) Germany Apr Trade Balance: €18.4B v €16.0Be; Exports M/M: +1.2% v -6.0% prior; Imports M/M: -1.7% v -5.5% prior.

- (RU) Russia May Services PMI: 54.3 v 55.9 prior (4th straight expansion); Composite PMI: No est v 55.1 prior.

- (CH) Swiss May CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e; CPI Core Y/Y: % v 2.0%e.

- (CH) Swiss May CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.2%e.

- (SE) Sweden May PMI Services: 50.2 v 50.5 prior (2nd straight expansion); PMI Composite: 47.6 v 49.0 prior.

- (TR) Turkey May CPI M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 39.6% v 39.1%e ; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 46.6% v 45.5% prior.

- (TR) Turkey May PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 40.8% v 52.1% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Q1 Average Real Monthly Wage Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.4%e.

- (ZA) South Africa May PMI (whole economy): 47.9 v 49.0e (3rd straight contraction).

- (ES) Spain May Services PMI: 56.7 v 57.0e (7th straight expansion); Composite PMI: 55.2 v 56.3 prior.

- (IT) Italy May Services PMI: 54.0 v 57.1e (5th straight expansion); Composite PMI: 52.0 v 55.3 prior.

- (FR) France May Final Services PMI: 52.5 v 52.8 prelim (confirmed 4th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 51.2e v 51.4 prelim.

- (DE) Germany May Final Services PMI: 57.2 v 57.8 prelim (confirmed 5th straight expansion); Composite PMI: 53.9e v 54.3 prelim.

- (EU) Euro Zone May Final Services PMI: 55.1 v 55.9 prelim (confirmed 5th straight expansion);; Composite PMI: 52.8e v 53.3 prelim.

- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 519.0B v 516.7B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 504.5B v 505.2B prior.

- (UK) May New Car Registrations Y/Y: 16.7% v 11.6% prior.

- (TW) Taiwan May Foreign Reserves: $562.9B v $561.1B prior.

- (UK) May Final Services PMI: 55.2 v 55.1 prelim (confirmed 4th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 54.0v 53.9 prelim.

- (UK) May Official Reserves Changes: -$1.0B v $0.5B prior.

- (EU) Euro Zone Jun Sentix Investor Confidence: -17.0 v -14.0e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Apr PPI M/M: % v -3.1%e; Y/Y: % v 1.7%e.

Looking ahead

- (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) May Minutes.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 ((DE) Germany to sell combined €6.0B in 3-month and 9-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €3.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.

- 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell combined ILS1.5B in 2026, 2029, 2030, 2031 and 2052 bonds.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico May Consumer Confidence: 44.5e v 44.1 prior.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Gross Fixed Investment M/M: 0.4%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 9.3%e v 12.7% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement for upcoming bills auction.

- 09:00 (BR) Brazil May Services PMI: No est v 54.5 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.8 prior.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.3-6.9B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 09:45 (US) May Final S&P/Markit Services PMI: 55.2e v 55.1 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 54.5 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) May ISM Services Index: 52.4e v 51.9 prior.

- 10:00 (US) Apr Factory Orders: 0.8%e v 0.4% prior (revised from 0.9%); Factory Orders (ex-transportation): +0.2%e v -1.0% prior (revised from -0.7%).

- 10:00 (US) Apr Final Durable Goods Orders: 1.1%e v 1.1% prelim; Durables (ex-transporation): -0.2%e v -0.2% prelim; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 1.4% prelim; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): No est v 0.5% prelim.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 16:00 (US) Weekly Crop Progress Report.

- 19:01 (UK) May BRC Sales LFL Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr Household Spending Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.3% prior (revised from 0.8%); Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: -2.0%e v -2.3% prior (revised from -2.9%);

- 19:30 (AU) Australia ANZ/Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: No est v -1.1% prior.

- 20:01 (IE) Ireland May AIB Ireland PMI Services: No est v 58.4 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 53.5 prior.

- 20:30 (SG) Singapore May PMI (whole economy): No est v 55.3 prior.

- 21:00 (NZ) New Zealand May ANZ Commodity Price M/M: No est v -1.7% prior.

- 21:00 (PH) Philippines May CPI Y/Y: 6.1%e v 6.6% prior.

- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 Current Account Balance (A$): 15.0Be v 14.1B prior; Net Exports of GDP: -0.5%e v +1.1% prior.

- 23:30 (TH) Thailand May CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.7% prior; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.6%e v 1.7% prior.

- 23:35 (JP) Japan to sell 30-Year JGB Bonds.