The aftermath of the referendum in Crimea this weekend is not the only big story in the foreign exchange market. On Saturday, China also doubled its Chinese Yuan trading band. They will now allow the CNY to fluctuate 2% above or below its daily midpoint rate, up from 1%. Given the currency's recent rapid decent, this decision was not a complete surprise and had only a limited impact on major currencies. Nonetheless it represents a major shift in FX policy for the central bank. The PBoC is clearly using the exchange rate as a means to increase stimulus and provide additional support to its economy as growth slows. With exports falling by the largest amount in more than 4 years during the month of February, the economy could certainly use the support of a weaker currency, which helps to make the cost of Chinese imports more competitive. Although the central bank argues that today's move is a step towards increasing exchange rate flexibility and greater two-way volatility in the currency, in the context of falling exports the recent slide in the Yuan clearly reflects an attempt to support the economy. A weaker Yuan hurts countries like Australia and Japan who rely heavily on Chinese demand. However even though trade balances could suffer, the AUD and JPY have taken the band winding in stride. For the U.S., China's announcement impacts the dollar by slowing reserve accumulation. Yet like AUD and JPY, there has been very little reaction in the U.S. dollar.
This morning's U.S. economic reports did not have much impact on the greenback. Manufacturing activity in the NY region increased slightly less than expected in the month of March but concerns about the sector was offset by a strong rise in industrial and manufacturing production along with an increase in capacity utilization. The NAHB housing market index rose, reflecting an improvement in builder confidence but the increase fell short expectations. As long as these reports show an improvement in the economy, it poses very little threat to the dollar ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision.
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