Declining Australia housing affordability justified more hawkish RBA

Economic Data

- (CN) CHINA FEB INDUSTRIAL PROFITS YTD Y/Y: 9.4% V 12.2% PRIOR

- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CBA/HIA HOUSE AFFORDABILITY: 74.7 V 75.1 PRIOR (first decline in 3 years)

- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 818M V 600ME (4th straight month of trade surplus)

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 108 V 108 PRIOR

- (KR) SOUTH KOREA FEB DEPT STORE SALES Y/Y: -2.4% V +6.8% PRIOR; DISCOUNT STORE SALES Y/Y: -23.1% V +18.6% PRIOR

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT):

- Nikkei225 -1.3%, S&P/ASX %, Kospi %, Shanghai Composite -0.6%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,843, Jun gold +0.2% at $1,305, May crude oil flat at $100.30/brl

Highlights/Observations/Insights

- Asian indices are weighed down by bearish tone from Wall St, where trading was marred by firmer rhetoric from President Obama warning Russia against further aggression and, in extended-session, the release of Fed's CCAR. While 25 out of 30 capital plans were approved, the Fed objected to Citigroup (down over 5% afterhours), HSBC North America, RBS Citizens, Santander Holdings USA and Zions. Nikkei225 is leading regional indices to the downside with a 1.3% slide below 14,300.

- In Japan, the uncertainty over the need for early/late/any additional BOJ easing was on display with conflicting comments from the BOJ and the cabinet. Nikkei report citing a source within the central bank indicated that while the BOJ is expecting a soft Q1, subsequent improvement in Apr-June quarter may not require more easing measures. Separately econ min Amari said the BOJ can maximize the impact of easing by surprising the markets. USD/JPY fell some 35pips from its highs below 101.75 in early Asian trade.

- The first decline in Australia housing affordability in 3 years, as measured by the quarterly CBA/HIA index, can begin to explain the increasingly less dovish nature of RBA board members, most notably another missed chance by the central gov Stevens overnight. Barclays economist Davies says Stevens is no longer "relaxed" regarding Australia property market gains, and the Sydney house prices - growing at 20% annualized pace - are the canary in the coal mine toward an earlier than expected RBA rate hike. AUD/USD hit a fresh 4-month high above $0.9240 earlier today, with fixed income markets more aggressively pricing in a 2014 tightening.

- New Zealand Feb trade number saw its 4th consecutive and a multi-month high surplus. Exports rose 17% y/y to NZ$4.6B, while imports were up just 8% y/y to NZ$3.7B - an 8-month low. Exports to China were again impressive with a 49% y/y rise, and exports of daily rose 38% y/y to NZ$1.6B.

- Bank of China did not trade as well as AgBank fared overnight after reporting FY results, rising a modest 0.3%. A note from Moody's may have injected some calm into the China property sector panic, noting property developers will achieve positive but smaller growth in sales revenues over the next 12 months, while maintaining adequate liquidity.

Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies

- (CN) China 7-day repo rate opens up 91bps at 4.80% (highest since Feb 13th)

- (CN) PBoc to drain CNY20B in 28-day repos, CNY32B in 14-day repos (11th consecutive drain); drains net CNY98B this week v drained CNY48B prior (7th week of drain)

- (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1465 v 6.1440 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Mar 21st)

- (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥395.5B in foreign bonds last week vs bought net ¥143.1B in prior week; Foreign Investors sold net ¥191.0B in Japan stocks v sold net ¥1.1T in prior week

- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.49T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.082% v 0.073% prior; bid to cover: 6.58x v 5.15x prior

- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 4.5 tonnes to 817.0 tonnes (first decline since Mar 17th)

Equities

US markets:

- GV: Reports Q4 $0.06 v $0.17 y/y, Rev $22.8M v $25.7M y/y; +5.7% afterhours

- PAYX: Reports Q3 $0.44 v $0.42e, R$636.5M v $627Me; +3.4% afterhours

- ESS: To be added to S&P500, replacing CLF which moves down to the S&P400; effective after the close on April 1st; +1.3% afterhours

- WFC: Receives No Objection to Its 2014 CCAR Plan for 16.7% dividend increase to $0.35 (implied yield 2.9%) from $0.30, and 350M share buyback authorization (6.7% of shares outstanding); +1.1% afterhours

- BAC: Fed accepts CCAR plan to increase dividend 400% to $0.05 from $0.01; approves $4B buyback program (2.2% of market cap); Settles with FHFA and New York AG; includes cash payment of $6.3B; sees reduction in Q1 net income of $0.21/shr; +0.9% afterhours

- JPM: Fed does not object to CCAR capital plan: To increase 5% dividend to $0.40 from $0.38 (implied yield 2.7%) and approved $6.5B share repurchase program (2.9% of market cap); +0.8% afterhours; +0.8% afterhours

- AXP: Fed does not object to CCAR plan: To increase quarterly dividend by 13% to $0.26/shr (implied yield 1.16%) and buy back up to $4.4B in common stock (4.6% of market cap); +0.6% afterhours

- C: Fed objected to capital plan that sought $6.4B buyback and increase of dividend to $0.05 per 2014 capital review (CCAR); permitted to continue current capital actions through Q1 2015; no timeframe on resubmission; -5.2% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:

- Consumer Discretionary: Huayi Brothers Media Corp 300027.CN -3.3% (FY13 results); Qingdao Doublestar 000599.CN +3.4% (Q1 guidance); Jinling Hotel Corp 601007.CN -3.1% (FY13 results)

- Financials: Bank of China 3988.HK +0.3% (FY13 results)

- Materials: Lynas Corp LYC.AU +20.8% (production update); Zhejiang Haers Vacuum Containers 002615.CN -6.8% (FY13 results)

- Energy: Tap Oil TAP.AU +4.3% (awarded exploration project)

- Industrials: China Shipping Container 2866.HK -1.7% (FY13 results); Lend Lease Corp LLC.AU -1.6% (legal dispute may delay project development); Toyota Motor Corp 7203.JP +2.3% (share repurchase program); CITIC Pacific 267.HK +14.2% (reverse merger plan from parent company)

- Technology: Universal Scientific Industrial Shanghai 601231.CN -3.7% (FY13 results); Shenzhen Laibao Hi-Tech 002106.CN -2.6% (FY13 results); Tencent 700.HK -7.0% (acquires CJ Games)

- Healthcare: Sigma Pharmaceuticals SIP.AU +6.0% (FY13 results)