Market Drivers April 17, 2019
Chinese data beats
UK CPI a bit cooler
Nikkei 0.25%
Dax 0.05%
Oil $64/bbl
Gold $1275/oz.

Europe and Asia:
NZD CPI 1.5% vs. 1.7%
CNY GDP 6.4% vs 6.3%
GBP UK CPI 1.9% vs. 2.0%

North America:
CAD CPI 8:30

It's been yet another seesaw night of trade as Chinese data surprised to the upside and reversed risk flows in late Asian session dealing.

The day started with cooler New Zealand CPI which printed at 1.5% vs. 1.7% eyed and promptly send kiwi below the .6700 figure as markets became convinced that RBNZ will begin to lower rates at its next meeting. But the selloff did not last as risk FX rebounded after Chinese data proved to be better than expected.

Chinese data, spurred by Q1 stimulus rose across the board with GDP printing at 6.4% versus 6.3% retail sales coming in at 8.7% versus at 8.4% and Industrial Production jumping to 8.5% from 5.9% forecast. The news instantly put a bid into Aussie which climbed all the way to .7200 before finally finding some sellers. Although the data was unambiguously bullish for Chinese economy it remains to be seen if it proves to be so for antipodeans. The rise in Chinese demand is now driven by internal factors and may have little additional positive impact on Australian and New Zealand economies which are starting to suffer from negative wealth erosion due to declining housing markets.

Tomorrow's AU labor data will be key as to whether the unit can hold the .7200 figure or begin to fall back to range lows as RBA clearly noted in its minutes that it is sceptical that job growth could continue at the current pace.

With no eco data on the calendar, the FX flows will once be dominated by equity market action. Equities have been mildly positive all night but have failed to make much upside progress this week, setting us up for a possible profit taking move as the day proceeds. If equities do drift lower they will likely pull USDJPY down with them. The pair burst through 112.00 barrier in early Asian trade, but the rally failed to go anywhere and if the pair can't take out the swing high at 112.25 it will be the fourth failure this year to clear this key level.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading forex carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade any such leveraged products you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Feed news

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: Snaps four-day winning run, but bull breakout still valid

EUR/USD fell 0.28 percent on Tuesday, engulfing Monday's high and low and ending the four-day winning streak. The currency pair however, defended the former resistance-turned-support of the 200-day MA.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retraces from 5-week high amid fewer fresh catalysts from UK

While renewed fears of no-deal Brexit and less dovish Fed speak dragged the GBP/USD pair back from a month’s high, the Cable trades little changed near 1.2690 during early Wednesday.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Bulls back in charge, re-takes 107.50

The less dovish rhetoric from a selection of Fed speakers overnight continues to aid the post-FOMC US dollar recovery, prompting the USD/JPY pair to retest the midpoint of the 107 handle despite negative Asian equities. 

USD/JPY News

Conference Board Consumer Confidence: The China syndrome

The index declined to 121.5 in June from April’s revised 131.3. A much more modest drop to 131.2 had been predicted.  “The escalation in trade and tariff tensions earlier this month appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence,” wrote Lynn Franco.

Read more

Gold bulls target $1485/oz

Gold prices rallied in Asia but stalled and started to deteriorate in European markets into consolidation before a sell-off emerged on the back of less dovish than expected rhetoric from Fed speakers on New York.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures