American FX Outlook: The US retail sales take center stage

What you need to know before markets open

  • The FX market effects of the US-led military strike against Syria are fading away on Monday as markets increasingly see the military action as once-off.
  • The UK house prices continue to rise on the national average basis while housing prices in London fall for the seventh month in a row.
  • European macro-calendar is empty on Monday shifting focus on sentiment and the US retail sales data due on Monday afternoon.

Monday’s market moving events

  • The New York Empire State manufacturing survey is seen decelerating to 20.1 in April.
  • The US retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% m/m in March while the part of the retail sales called control group, that is included in the GDP is seen rising 0.4% m/m.
  • Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to speak at the Shoals Chamber of Commerce in Florence, Alabama at 17:15 GMT.

Major market movers

  • The US Dollar is trading mostly lower against European majors like EUR and GBP while it is up against commodity currencies like CAD and NZD.
  • The US Dollar will be in focus with the US retail sales report on the relatively data-light session.

Earlier in Asia/Europe

  • The Rightmove UK house price index rose to an all-time record in March with the average UK house price jumping up 1.5% m/m while rising 201% over the year in March to £304.504 with house prices in London falling for the seventh consecutive month on the annual rate basis.
  • German wholesale price index remained unchanged from March while increasing 1.5% y/y.
  • Swiss factory gate inflation fell 0.2% m/m in March while increasing 2.0% y/y.
  • The Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Wakatabe praised the BoJ’s policy saying the benefits outweigh the cost of the BoJ’s policy and there is no major disruption to Japan's financial intermediation.


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