Stephen Innes
SPI Asset Management
US equities were little changed Wednesday, with S&P down 0.3% heading into the close. But there was a more significant move in rates: with US10yr yields down 12bps to 3.41%..And Oil is down another 2.3%.
From an investor's perspective, bonds and oil are where the recessionary wake-up calls are ringing.
Last week's firm Payrolls number plus this week's surprisingly robust ISM Services survey have continued raising doubts about the path forward for inflation, rates, and the Fed. And with a relative dearth of new macroeconomic information and sentiment still drenched in recession angst, investors continue orienting out of stocks and into bonds and gold as they contemplate the prospect of a still too-strong US economy and if a soft landing is anywhere near achievable.
And looking under the hood at critical market recession gauges, be it the yield curve inversion or closely watched Oil benchmarks, investors are reactively more concerned about the potential of a more severe recession than previously anticipated.
Oil bulls are feeling the discomfort of a macro-led environment where the prospects of a 2023 global recession are front and centre.
And as China heads for the zero-Covid off-ramp, darker days loom as Covid cases are bound to surge.
SPI Asset Management provides forex, commodities, and global indices analysis, in a timely and accurate fashion on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors.
Our publications are for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
Opinions are the authors — not necessarily SPI Asset Management its officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. Losses can exceed investments.
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