- The new year has kicked off with plenty of uncertainty and risk-off dominating market sentiment.
- Read our 20 most important market topics to follow in 2020.
A new year always comes with new challenges. Even if we dismiss the popular but regularly unsuccessful new year resolutions, in financial markets the change of year is relevant, as books and balances get closed and blank new ones get opened. Whether your trading has been profitable or not, chances are you are starting 2020 pumped for what's to come. And you might believe this is the start of a new decade or not, but still, acknowledge that the new year brings some change winds you have to prepare for. Anticipating that, as 2020 starts, we have prepared 20 articles on 20 trading topics to follow during the year.
2020 is expected to be a turning point year, according to Andrew Pancholi, founder and CEO at Market Timing Report, and his cycle-analysis research. Following different reasoning, our webinar speaker and analyst Steve Ruffley also writes about 2020 to be the year that will make or break the global economy. In fact, it hasn't taken too long for things to get swinging, as Iranian top official's Qasem Soleimani's killing by the US kick-started the action with a shock. In barely a week, oil and gold prices have already rallied to multi-month (multi-year in case of the yellow metal) highs and retraced. Our senior editor and analyst Dhwani Mehta expects gold to keep its status as one of the main safe-haven assets in the market.
Risk aversion sentiment already dominated last year and might be here to stay. Recession fears are still there, as popular analyst Mike "Mish" Shedlock notes, following some housing market indicators. A trigger for a recession could come from any of the five bubbles our senior analyst Yohay Elam sees as potential ticking bombs. That would disrupt the employment figures in the world's main economies, currently at – or close to – their peaks, which could have diverse effects on each currency, Elam notes.
Even if doomsday is avoided in 2020, still expect plenty of uncertainty to dominate markets' sentiment. The US-China phase-one trade deal is expected to be signed by January 15th, but trade disputes between the two biggest economies in the world might just be the new normal, according to our senior analyst Joseph Trevisani. The continuation of the trade war and a de-globalisation is also one of the five main market trends that Kathleen Brooks, founder of Minerva Markets, expects for this year.
Of course, this could all change by November if Donald Trump fails to get reelected in the US presidential elections. The race to the White House will have the potential to shake the US dollar and stock markets, particularly after the summer democrat and republican conventions. Our senior editor and analyst Ross J Burland expects the Fed to likely put interest rates on hold and play the wait-and-see game while the US political landscape gets sorted out. Still, even if the Fed stresses its political independence, that won't probably stop the US President to continue targeting the central bank's officials in his tweeting: our chief analyst Valeria Bednarik has a guide on how to trade Trump's tweets during this election year.
Donald Trump's Twitter game is also strong on stock market landmarks celebrations, but that could vanish if the US stocks finally hit the peak of their current endless bullish cycle. Our technical analyst Tomàs Sallés thinks that could be coming this summer.
Back in Europe, 2020 is the year where Brexit should finally happen. After all the trials and tribulations, the UK is expected to officially leave the European Union on the 31st of January and our senior analyst Joseph Trevisani forecasts a big year for the pound, as he expects the UK to land a good trade deal with the EU. Trevisani expects the EU to soften their negotiating stand as they prioritize avoiding a recession. There's a more optimistic version of the European economic outlook, Yohay Elam notes, and that involves Germany finally realizing they need to spend more and abandon austerity, which could drive the EUR/USD higher.
A supporter of such fiscal expansive policy would certainly be Christine Lagarde, the ECB's new boss, who has already asked governments to do more as the central bank runs out of ammo to stimulate the lackluster European growth. Lagarde could either act like an owl, a hawk or a dove during the year, which will certainly drive EUR trading. His goal might be to prevent the eurozone from becoming the new Japan, where multiple decades of interest rates at close-to-zero levels have meant the death of monetary policy and economic stagnation.
Global uncertainty and risk aversion will not be ignored in the cryptocurrency sphere, where Bitcoin has already started the year pumped by the risk-off trade. The most important event for BTC bulls, though, will be the reward halving expected to come in May. As our crypto analyst Tanya Abrosimova reports, Bitcoin saw big surges following the two previous halvings some years ago, but this time it could be different as the market is more mature.
The relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum will rule the nature of the crypto market in 2020 and our crypto news editor Rajarshi Mitra has a guide on how to use the ETH/BTC pair to increase your crypto portfolio. Ethereum is also expected to have a big year, as ETH futures are expected to be approved, but our crypto editor Rajan Dhall doesn't expect that to be a bullish event. According to Ken Chigbo, the value might be elsewhere, with a couple of under-the-radar cryptocurrencies that could have big years if they are able to break out of their current bearish trend channels.
Here you have the full list of articles:
- The optimist's guide to the old continent – Why Germany will change and how EUR/USD may surge by Yohay Elam
- Lagarde's first year in the ECB: A dove, hawk, owl? She may be all three, rocking EUR/USD by Yohay Elam
- Japan, negative interest rates and the death of monetary policy by Joseph Trevisani
- Brexit: Leaving is departure for the British pound by Joseph Trevisani
- This is the new normal in US-China trade by Joseph Trevisani
- Unemployment to rise in 2020? Examining five countries and potential currency reactions by Yohay Elam
- US 2020 Presidential Race: When to buy and sell US dollar and stocks by Yohay Elam
- Effects of a politicized Fed on markets during US election year by Ross J Burland
- Trading Trump's tweets on an election year by Valeria Bednarik
- S&P 500 Forecast 2020: When will equities peak? A guide for stock market bears by Tomàs Sallés
- Gold and yen to keep safe-haven status: Traders' fear-favorites unlikely to change in 2020 by Dhwani Mehta
- Five bubbles that may burst in 2020 and how they may impact the dollar by Yohay Elam
- Housing Consistent With a Recession in 2020 by Mike "Mish" Shedlock
- 2020 – The year that will make or break the global economy by Steve Ruffley
- 2020 – The Year Ahead From A Market Timing Perspective by Andrew Pancholi
- Five market trends to follow in 2020 by Kathleen Brooks
- Bitcoin halving is around the corner: How to trade it by Tanya Abrosimova
- We could get regulated Ethereum futures in 2020 – What effect will it have on ETH/USD? by Rajan Dhall
- How to use the ETH/BTC cross to accumulate crypto value in 2020 by Rajarshi Mitra
- Two cryptocurrencies to buy in 2020 by Ken Chigbo
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