Morning briefing: EUR/USD is stuck between 1.1750-1.1800 region

The Dollar Index will either have to rise past 98.25 or fall below 97.75 to get further directional clarity. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1750-1.1800 region. EURINR can rise towards 106.50-107.00. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY is near 7.00 region. It remains to be seen as to wether the pair rebounds from current level or extends the fall further. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.36, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.345 respectively. USDINR can trade within 89.50-90.25 region before a breakout occurs.

The US Treasury yields look bearish with the 10Yr and 30yr yields likely to dip towards 4.05% and 4.75% on sustained trade below 4.10% and 4.80% respectively. The German yields have dipped as well but if they do not rebound immediately, there can be an initial test of 2.80% (10yr) and 3.40% (30yr). The Indian 10Yr GOI has risen well but might face resistance near 6.60/65% from where a rejection is possible towards 6.50% soon.

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now while Dax has resistance near 24400 and 25000 which can be tested before facing rejection. Nifty has closed below support at 26000 and can test 25800 before rebounding towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei could be ranged for now with scope for further bullishness in the medium term while Shanghai looks bullish and could have room for a rise towards 4100-4200 in Jan-26.

Crude prices have bounced back, but while Brent remains below $62 and WTI below $60, the near-term bias stays bearish towards $60–$59 and $56–$55. Gold has slipped to $4316, but support near $4300 keeps a recovery towards $4500–$4600 possible. Silver has fallen sharply to $70.22, and as long as this holds, a bounce towards $74–$76 is expected. Copper has dropped to $5.5575, with support near $5.50 pointing to a possible rebound towards $5.75–$5.85. Natural Gas below $4.00 remains weak towards $3.60–$3.40.