Morning briefing: EUR/USD is stuck between 1.1750-1.1800 region

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index will either have to rise past 98.25 or fall below 97.75 to get further directional clarity. EURUSD is stuck between 1.1750-1.1800 region. EURINR can rise towards 106.50-107.00. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY is near 7.00 region. It remains to be seen as to wether the pair rebounds from current level or extends the fall further. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.36, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.345 respectively. USDINR can trade within 89.50-90.25 region before a breakout occurs.

The US Treasury yields look bearish with the 10Yr and 30yr yields likely to dip towards 4.05% and 4.75% on sustained trade below 4.10% and 4.80% respectively. The German yields have dipped as well but if they do not rebound immediately, there can be an initial test of 2.80% (10yr) and 3.40% (30yr). The Indian 10Yr GOI has risen well but might face resistance near 6.60/65% from where a rejection is possible towards 6.50% soon.

The Dow is expected to trade within 48000-49000 for now while Dax has resistance near 24400 and 25000 which can be tested before facing rejection. Nifty has closed below support at 26000 and can test 25800 before rebounding towards 26300-26600 in the next few weeks. Nikkei could be ranged for now with scope for further bullishness in the medium term while Shanghai looks bullish and could have room for a rise towards 4100-4200 in Jan-26.

Crude prices have bounced back, but while Brent remains below $62 and WTI below $60, the near-term bias stays bearish towards $60–$59 and $56–$55. Gold has slipped to $4316, but support near $4300 keeps a recovery towards $4500–$4600 possible. Silver has fallen sharply to $70.22, and as long as this holds, a bounce towards $74–$76 is expected. Copper has dropped to $5.5575, with support near $5.50 pointing to a possible rebound towards $5.75–$5.85. Natural Gas below $4.00 remains weak towards $3.60–$3.40.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD weakens to four-week lows near 1.1750

EUR/USD’s selling pressure is gathering pace now, approaching the area of multi-week troughs in the mid-1.1700s on Thursday. The pair’s intense decline comes on the back of another day of solid gains in the US Dollar, particulalry exacerbated following firm prints from the weekly US labour market.

GBP/USD drops further, hovers around 1.3460

In line with the rest of its risk-linked peers, GBP/USD faces increasing selling pressure and recedes toward the 1.3460 region, or four-week lows, on Thursday. Cable’s persistent pullback comes in response to the continuation of the recovery in the Greenback amid a solid US data and a divided FOMC when it comes to the Fed’s rate path.

Gold clings to daily gains near $5,000

Gold struggles for direction and clings to its daily gains around the key $5,000 mark per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal sticks to the bid bias amid reignited geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and despite marked gains in the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Ripple slips toward $1.40 despite SG-FORGE tapping protocol for EUR CoinVertible

XRP extends its decline, nearing $1.40 support, as risk appetite fades in the broader market. SG-FORGE’s EUR CoinVertible launches on the XRP Ledger, leveraging the blockchain’s scalability, speed, security, and decentralization.

Hawkish Fed minutes and a market finding its footing

It was green across the board for US Stock market indexes at the close on Wednesday, with most S&P 500 names ending higher, adding 38 points (0.6%) to 6,881 overall. At the GICS sector level, energy led gains, followed by technology and consumer discretionary, while utilities and real estate posted the largest losses.

Injective token surges over 13% following the approval of the mainnet upgrade proposal

Injective price rallies over 13% on Thursday after the network confirmed the approval of its IIP-619 proposal. The green light for the mainnet upgrade has boosted traders’ sentiment, as the upgrade aims to scale Injective’s real-time Ethereum Virtual Machine architecture and enhance its capabilities to support next-generation payments.