WTI surges from YTD lows and gains more than 9% in the week

US Department of Commerce reported that PCE was below estimates, spurring speculations for a Fed shift.
Oil prices rise after output reduction at several oilfields in northern Iraq’s Kurdistan region.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

Western Texas Intermediate (WT), the US crude oil benchmark, is set to finish the week with more than 9% gains after touching a YTD low of $64.41. On Friday, WTI is trading at $75.60 PB, above its opening price by 1.74%.

Wall Street finished the week with substantial gains. Inflation data in the United States (US) reported by the Department of Commerce showed that Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index rose below estimates. Headline inflation came at 5% YoY, below forecasts of 5.3%, and core PCE was 4.6% YoY, below estimates.

Hence, the odds that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could pause tightening its policy increased. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the odds for a pause lie at 49.6%. The latest round of inflation data pointing down improved investors’ mood, meaning that less aggressive rate hikes could keep the US Dollar in check.

Oil prices jumped since the halt of Kurdistan oil export through Turkey at the beginning of the week. The total amount of oil shortage was 450K BPD.

In the meantime, according to Reuters sources, the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) agreed to stick to its crude output production at a meeting on Monday.

According to a survey conducted by Reuters, OPEC’s crude oil production for the current month is estimated at 28.90 million barrels per day BPD, which is a decrease of 70K BPD compared to February. Moreover, the current output is more than 700K BPD lower than what was recorded in September.

WTI Technical levels

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price	75.76
Today Daily Change	1.35
Today Daily Change %	1.81
Today daily open	74.41

Trends
Daily SMA20	72.83
Daily SMA50	75.89
Daily SMA100	77.07
Daily SMA200	83.79

Levels
Previous Daily High	74.66
Previous Daily Low	72.69
Previous Weekly High	71.69
Previous Weekly Low	64.39
Previous Monthly High	80.75
Previous Monthly Low	72.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	73.91
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	73.44
Daily Pivot Point S1	73.18
Daily Pivot Point S2	71.95
Daily Pivot Point S3	71.21
Daily Pivot Point R1	75.15
Daily Pivot Point R2	75.89
Daily Pivot Point R3	77.12

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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