WTI Price Analysis: Clings to 200-bar SMA around $40.00 in Asia

WTI struggles to extend recovery moves from $39.48.
Falling trend line from September 04 also challenges the oil bulls.
Five-week-old horizontal support will lure bears below the $39.00 threshold.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

WTI picks up bids near $40.23 while heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the black gold confronts 200-bar SMA after its positive performance on Wednesday.

While normal RSI conditions and risk-on mood favors the commodity to cross the immediate upside hurdle near $40.25, it’s further advances will be tamed by a falling trend line from the early September, currently around $40.95.

During the quote’s break past-$40.95, the $41.00 round-figure and September 18 top close to $41.45 can entertain the oil buyers.

On the contrary, a downside break of yesterday’s low of $39.48 can quickly direct WTI sellers toward a horizontal region between $38.70 and $38.80 that comprises multiple technical levels since September 04.

Also acting as the key support will be the monthly low of $36.79 and the September month’s bottom surrounding $36.40.

WTI four-hour chart

Trend: Further recovery expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	40.22
Today Daily Change	-0.01
Today Daily Change %	-0.02%
Today daily open	40.23

Trends
Daily SMA20	39.45
Daily SMA50	40.88
Daily SMA100	39.82
Daily SMA200	39.57

Levels
Previous Daily High	40.52
Previous Daily Low	39.48
Previous Weekly High	40.88
Previous Weekly Low	36.8
Previous Monthly High	43.56
Previous Monthly Low	36.43
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	40.13
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	39.88
Daily Pivot Point S1	39.63
Daily Pivot Point S2	39.03
Daily Pivot Point S3	38.59
Daily Pivot Point R1	40.68
Daily Pivot Point R2	41.12
Daily Pivot Point R3	41.72

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD retreats from weekly high vs firmer USD as focus shifts to BoE, US data

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's strong move up to the weekly high and drifts lower during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around mid-1.3300s, down over 0.10% for the day, and, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery move from a nearly four-week low, touched on Tuesday.

EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1450 ahead of German/ EU GDP

EUR/USD trades with mild losses around 1.1450 in the early European hours on Thursday. The US Dollar recovers ground on renewed Mideast hostilities, despite a cautious Fed hold. Traders now brace for preliminary readings of the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from Germany, the Eurozone and the US.

Gold extends intraday rejection slide from $4,100

Gold extends its intraday rejection slide from the $4,100 mark and moves further away from a one-week high, touched the previous day. The US Dollar regains positive traction following Wednesday's post-FOMC decline and is seen as a key factor weighing on the commodity.

Mixed signals leave XRP and XLM at crossroads

Ripple and Stellar are trading at critical technical levels on Thursday. XRP has stabilized above the psychological $1.00 support, while XLM is testing support at $0.173. Traders should be cautious as mixed derivatives metrics keep the outlook uncertain for both altcoins. Derivatives data shows mixed sentiment among traders. CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for XRP reads 1.02 on Thursday.

Fed review: Reversing course (?)

At face value, the FOMC's 9-3 split decision hold was exactly in line with the expectations we laid out in our Fed preview - a divided hold, 22 July. We also named the three dissenters - Hammack, Logan and Kashkari - as the most likely hawks to support rapid tightening.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.