WTI Price Analysis: Bears are waiting to pounce but bulls putting up a fight

WTI is attempting to breakdown but the bulls stay in charge.
A break of $79.00 is required for bearish thesis to be solidified.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

WTI crude also rose 4.6% for the week, marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase, the longest winning streak since the week ending June 10, 2022. This leaves the longs exposed for the days ahead with the past 5 weeks of fundamentals playing in and ripe for a squeeze despite this week's EIA data that was skewed slightly bullish.

The following analysis is leaning bearish, but there are a number of developments that need to occur to conclude the thesis of a long squeeze for the week ahead:

WTI weekly charts

The bearish Gartley is compelling as is the weekly W-formation:

However, the price is still very much front side of the bullish trendline.

WTI daily charts

Do we have a final peak formation coming into play with trapped longs up top?

The daily chart's W formation is also compelling, although has it failed to draw in the price? So far the bulls stay in control into weekly resistance.

WTI H4 chart

A break of the trendline is required and we also need to see a breakout $79 structure before a bearish thesis can be solidified.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation

We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.